**The current minority Jetten cabinet (D66–VVD–CDA), installed after the October 2025 snap election, faces ongoing budget negotiations but shows no signs of imminent collapse or dissolution of the House of Representatives.** The parliament elected in late 2025 began its term in November 2025, with the next scheduled general election in 2030; Dutch constitutional practice triggers early dissolution primarily after a cabinet falls or loses confidence, typically leading to elections within months. As of late August 2026, the government is actively seeking ad hoc support from opposition parties such as Progressief Nederland (PRO) or a right-wing bloc including JA21 and SGP to pass the 2027 budget by the September 15 Prinsjesdag deadline. Finance Minister Eelco Heinen has expressed confidence in reaching a deal despite reported deadlocks over welfare cuts, defense spending, and social policy concessions. No no-confidence motions, major coalition fractures, or official statements indicating resignation have emerged in recent weeks. Trader consensus at 95.5% against dissolution reflects this post-election stability and the absence of acute crisis triggers. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a breakdown in budget talks producing a government crisis, a successful no-confidence vote, or an unexpected policy standoff forcing the cabinet to request dissolution—though current negotiations and the recent electoral cycle make these low-probability outcomes before year-end.