Recent polling shows the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains a knife-edge contest, with surveys placing Yes and No within a few points of each other and substantial undecided voters. This uncertainty, combined with fisheries sovereignty as the dominant cleavage and economic concerns over currency stability and tariffs, sustains trader pricing on narrow victory brackets for either side. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir’s centre-left government has framed the vote as an opportunity to assess terms without committing to membership, while opponents emphasize risks to national control over resources. The prospect of a second referendum on any final deal further compresses expected margins. Geopolitical factors, including external trade pressures, have kept the contest competitive without decisive shifts in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedYes <3% 28%
No <3% 27%
No 6–9% 25%
No 9–12% 25%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
23%
Yes 12–15%
8%
Yes 9–12%
24%
Yes 6–9%
24%
Yes 3–6%
23%
Yes <3%
28%
No <3%
27%
No 3–6%
24%
No 6–9%
25%
No 9–12%
25%
No 12–15%
23%
No 15%+
11%
Yes <3% 28%
No <3% 27%
No 6–9% 25%
No 9–12% 25%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
$70 Vol.
23%
Yes 12–15%
$63 Vol.
8%
Yes 9–12%
$0 Vol.
24%
Yes 6–9%
$0 Vol.
24%
Yes 3–6%
$0 Vol.
23%
Yes <3%
$0 Vol.
28%
No <3%
$0 Vol.
27%
No 3–6%
$0 Vol.
24%
No 6–9%
$0 Vol.
25%
No 9–12%
$6 Vol.
25%
No 12–15%
$70 Vol.
23%
No 15%+
$0 Vol.
11%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polling shows the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains a knife-edge contest, with surveys placing Yes and No within a few points of each other and substantial undecided voters. This uncertainty, combined with fisheries sovereignty as the dominant cleavage and economic concerns over currency stability and tariffs, sustains trader pricing on narrow victory brackets for either side. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir’s centre-left government has framed the vote as an opportunity to assess terms without committing to membership, while opponents emphasize risks to national control over resources. The prospect of a second referendum on any final deal further compresses expected margins. Geopolitical factors, including external trade pressures, have kept the contest competitive without decisive shifts in the final weeks.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
Volume
$209End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polling shows the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains a knife-edge contest, with surveys placing Yes and No within a few points of each other and substantial undecided voters. This uncertainty, combined with fisheries sovereignty as the dominant cleavage and economic concerns over currency stability and tariffs, sustains trader pricing on narrow victory brackets for either side. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir’s centre-left government has framed the vote as an opportunity to assess terms without committing to membership, while opponents emphasize risks to national control over resources. The prospect of a second referendum on any final deal further compresses expected margins. Geopolitical factors, including external trade pressures, have kept the contest competitive without decisive shifts in the final weeks.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$209End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains a knife-edge contest, with surveys placing Yes and No within a few points of each other and substantial undecided voters. This uncertainty, combined with fisheries sovereignty as the dominant cleavage and economic concerns over currency stability and tariffs, sustains trader pricing on narrow victory brackets for either side. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir’s centre-left government has framed the vote as an opportunity to assess terms without committing to membership, while opponents emphasize risks to national control over resources. The prospect of a second referendum on any final deal further compresses expected margins. Geopolitical factors, including external trade pressures, have kept the contest competitive without decisive shifts in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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