**Marine Le Pen remains an active Member of the National Assembly as of late August 2026, representing the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais for Rassemblement National (RN), with recent parliamentary votes recorded through July.** The July 2026 Paris appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction but shortened the ineligibility period to 45 months (30 suspended), determining that the firm portion had already been served since the March 2025 first-instance verdict. This preserved her current seat and eligibility for future office, overriding earlier expectations of a longer ban that could have forced her out. Her pending appeal to the Cour de Cassation suspends enforcement of the remaining penalties, including the one-year house arrest with electronic monitoring. No immediate procedural triggers, such as automatic expulsion or resignation tied to the case, have materialized. Upcoming factors include the timing and outcome of the cassation ruling, any adjustments to sentence modalities by a judge of application of penalties, and RN internal dynamics ahead of the 2027 presidential contest. Trader consensus reflects these developments, with limited near-term pressure on her Assembly tenure absent new legal reversals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
3%
$3,440 Vol.
October 31
$2,130 Vol.
3%
This market resolves to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen’s departure as Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The departure will be considered to be announced when Marine Le Pen, the National Assembly of France, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Le Pen has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Marine Le Pen and the National Assembly of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Marine Le Pen remains an active Member of the National Assembly as of late August 2026, representing the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais for Rassemblement National (RN), with recent parliamentary votes recorded through July.** The July 2026 Paris appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction but shortened the ineligibility period to 45 months (30 suspended), determining that the firm portion had already been served since the March 2025 first-instance verdict. This preserved her current seat and eligibility for future office, overriding earlier expectations of a longer ban that could have forced her out.
Her pending appeal to the Cour de Cassation suspends enforcement of the remaining penalties, including the one-year house arrest with electronic monitoring. No immediate procedural triggers, such as automatic expulsion or resignation tied to the case, have materialized. Upcoming factors include the timing and outcome of the cassation ruling, any adjustments to sentence modalities by a judge of application of penalties, and RN internal dynamics ahead of the 2027 presidential contest. Trader consensus reflects these developments, with limited near-term pressure on her Assembly tenure absent new legal reversals.
This market resolves to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen’s departure as Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The departure will be considered to be announced when Marine Le Pen, the National Assembly of France, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Le Pen has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Marine Le Pen and the National Assembly of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The departure will be considered to be announced when Marine Le Pen, the National Assembly of France, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Le Pen has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Marine Le Pen and the National Assembly of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 7, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$3,440End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen’s departure as Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The departure will be considered to be announced when Marine Le Pen, the National Assembly of France, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Le Pen has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Marine Le Pen and the National Assembly of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Marine Le Pen remains an active Member of the National Assembly as of late August 2026, representing the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais for Rassemblement National (RN), with recent parliamentary votes recorded through July.** The July 2026 Paris appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction but shortened the ineligibility period to 45 months (30 suspended), determining that the firm portion had already been served since the March 2025 first-instance verdict. This preserved her current seat and eligibility for future office, overriding earlier expectations of a longer ban that could have forced her out.
Her pending appeal to the Cour de Cassation suspends enforcement of the remaining penalties, including the one-year house arrest with electronic monitoring. No immediate procedural triggers, such as automatic expulsion or resignation tied to the case, have materialized. Upcoming factors include the timing and outcome of the cassation ruling, any adjustments to sentence modalities by a judge of application of penalties, and RN internal dynamics ahead of the 2027 presidential contest. Trader consensus reflects these developments, with limited near-term pressure on her Assembly tenure absent new legal reversals.
This market resolves to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen’s departure as Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The departure will be considered to be announced when Marine Le Pen, the National Assembly of France, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Le Pen has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Marine Le Pen and the National Assembly of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The departure will be considered to be announced when Marine Le Pen, the National Assembly of France, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Le Pen has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Marine Le Pen and the National Assembly of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,440End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Marine Le Pen remains an active Member of the National Assembly as of late August 2026, representing the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais for Rassemblement National (RN), with recent parliamentary votes recorded through July.** The July 2026 Paris appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction but shortened the ineligibility period to 45 months (30 suspended), determining that the firm portion had already been served since the March 2025 first-instance verdict. This preserved her current seat and eligibility for future office, overriding earlier expectations of a longer ban that could have forced her out. Her pending appeal to the Cour de Cassation suspends enforcement of the remaining penalties, including the one-year house arrest with electronic monitoring. No immediate procedural triggers, such as automatic expulsion or resignation tied to the case, have materialized. Upcoming factors include the timing and outcome of the cassation ruling, any adjustments to sentence modalities by a judge of application of penalties, and RN internal dynamics ahead of the 2027 presidential contest. Trader consensus reflects these developments, with limited near-term pressure on her Assembly tenure absent new legal reversals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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