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icon for MLB: 2026 NL Hank Aaron Winner
Sports·Hank Aaron

MLB: 2026 NL Hank Aaron Winner

icon for MLB: 2026 NL Hank Aaron Winner
Sports·Hank Aaron

MLB: 2026 NL Hank Aaron Winner

Pete Crow-Armstrong 47.1%

Shohei Ohtani 29%

Kyle Schwarber 11.7%

Bryce Harper 3.1%

Polymarket

$154,897 Vol.

Pete Crow-Armstrong 47.1%

Shohei Ohtani 29%

Kyle Schwarber 11.7%

Bryce Harper 3.1%

Polymarket

$154,897 Vol.

Pete Crow-Armstrong

$7,546 Vol.

47%

Shohei Ohtani

$12,564 Vol.

29%

Kyle Schwarber

$94,423 Vol.

12%

Bryce Harper

$1,495 Vol.

3%

Juan Soto

$35,732 Vol.

3%

Francisco Lindor

$1,108 Vol.

1%

Ketel Marte

$305 Vol.

1%

Fernando Tatis Jr.

$324 Vol.

1%

Mookie Betts

$341 Vol.

<1%

Ronald Acuña Jr.

$1,060 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the 2026 NL Hank Aaron Award market at 47.1% implied probability, ahead of Shohei Ohtani at 28.5% and Kyle Schwarber at 11.7%.** Crow-Armstrong’s case rests on elite all-around production at the plate combined with Gold Glove-level center-field defense and baserunning. He enters late August hitting around .276/.375/.550 with 33 home runs and 32 stolen bases in his second straight 30-30 campaign, while leading the NL in slugging, wRC+, total bases, and multiple defensive metrics such as Outs Above Average and fielding runs. Recent expert and player polls have shifted sharply toward him for NL MVP, reflecting his higher WAR totals (often 8+ fWAR/bWAR) during Ohtani’s extended absence from the mound. Ohtani remains a strong offensive force at .287/.388/.546 with 30 home runs but has been limited to DH duties after knee and bicep issues, reducing his two-way impact. Schwarber tops NL home-run totals (39) yet trails substantially in on-base skills and overall rate stats. Lower-probability names such as Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, and Francisco Lindor sit further back in the primary offensive categories and advanced metrics that shape voter consensus. The current pricing reflects Crow-Armstrong’s recent momentum and the market’s emphasis on comprehensive offensive value in the final month of the regular season.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$154,897
End Date
Nov 13, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the 2026 NL Hank Aaron Award market at 47.1% implied probability, ahead of Shohei Ohtani at 28.5% and Kyle Schwarber at 11.7%.** Crow-Armstrong’s case rests on elite all-around production at the plate combined with Gold Glove-level center-field defense and baserunning. He enters late August hitting around .276/.375/.550 with 33 home runs and 32 stolen bases in his second straight 30-30 campaign, while leading the NL in slugging, wRC+, total bases, and multiple defensive metrics such as Outs Above Average and fielding runs. Recent expert and player polls have shifted sharply toward him for NL MVP, reflecting his higher WAR totals (often 8+ fWAR/bWAR) during Ohtani’s extended absence from the mound. Ohtani remains a strong offensive force at .287/.388/.546 with 30 home runs but has been limited to DH duties after knee and bicep issues, reducing his two-way impact. Schwarber tops NL home-run totals (39) yet trails substantially in on-base skills and overall rate stats. Lower-probability names such as Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, and Francisco Lindor sit further back in the primary offensive categories and advanced metrics that shape voter consensus. The current pricing reflects Crow-Armstrong’s recent momentum and the market’s emphasis on comprehensive offensive value in the final month of the regular season.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$154,897
End Date
Nov 13, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: 2026 NL Hank Aaron Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Pete Crow-Armstrong" at 47%, followed by "Shohei Ohtani" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: 2026 NL Hank Aaron Winner" has generated $154.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: 2026 NL Hank Aaron Winner," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: 2026 NL Hank Aaron Winner" is "Pete Crow-Armstrong" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Shohei Ohtani" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: 2026 NL Hank Aaron Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.