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Finance·Indicies

What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?

icon for What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
Finance·Indicies

What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

>$8,000 32%

$7,500-$8,000 22%

$7,000-$7,500 18%

$6,500-$7,000 13%

Polymarket

$40,408 Vol.

>$8,000 32%

$7,500-$8,000 22%

$7,000-$7,500 18%

$6,500-$7,000 13%

Polymarket

$40,408 Vol.

<$6,000

$20,872 Vol.

10%

$6,000-$6,500

$2,312 Vol.

7%

$6,500-$7,000

$4,408 Vol.

13%

$7,000-$7,500

$2,554 Vol.

18%

$7,500-$8,000

$4,071 Vol.

22%

>$8,000

$6,190 Vol.

37%

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Recent strong second-quarter earnings growth, led by AI-driven profits at technology firms, has lifted Wall Street consensus targets for the S&P 500 to around 7,900 by year-end 2026, with several banks now at 8,000–8,100. This momentum supports the market-implied 37% probability on a close above 8,000 and combined 58.5% odds above 7,500, as the index trades near 7,676 amid 12% year-to-date gains. Persistent inflation pressures from elevated oil prices and geopolitical tensions, alongside a Federal Reserve on hold or potentially hawkish, introduce downside risks that underpin the 10% probability below 6,500. Upcoming catalysts including September CPI data and FOMC decisions will influence whether earnings sustain the higher-probability paths.

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$40,408
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Recent strong second-quarter earnings growth, led by AI-driven profits at technology firms, has lifted Wall Street consensus targets for the S&P 500 to around 7,900 by year-end 2026, with several banks now at 8,000–8,100. This momentum supports the market-implied 37% probability on a close above 8,000 and combined 58.5% odds above 7,500, as the index trades near 7,676 amid 12% year-to-date gains. Persistent inflation pressures from elevated oil prices and geopolitical tensions, alongside a Federal Reserve on hold or potentially hawkish, introduce downside risks that underpin the 10% probability below 6,500. Upcoming catalysts including September CPI data and FOMC decisions will influence whether earnings sustain the higher-probability paths.

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$40,408
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is ">$8,000" at 37%, followed by "$7,500-$8,000" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?" has generated $40.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?" is ">$8,000" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "$7,500-$8,000" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.