**Strong second-quarter earnings growth, led by AI-driven capital spending and upward EPS revisions across major brokerages, underpins trader positioning favoring S&P 500 levels at or above 7,500 by year-end.** With the index near 7,676 as of late August 2026, Wall Street strategists have lifted median targets to 7,900 in recent Reuters polling, with several houses at 8,000–8,100 on resilient profit momentum and a broadening earnings base. These factors explain the 37% market-implied probability on a close above 8,000 and the combined 77% odds above 7,000. Near-term catalysts include Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, September labor and inflation data, and the September FOMC meeting, which could shift rate expectations and volatility. Lower-probability outcomes below 7,000 price in risks from sticky inflation or policy tightening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated>$8,000 32%
$7,500-$8,000 22%
$7,000-$7,500 18%
$6,500-$7,000 13%
$40,408 Vol.
$40,408 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
10%
$6,000-$6,500
8%
$6,500-$7,000
13%
$7,000-$7,500
18%
$7,500-$8,000
22%
>$8,000
37%
>$8,000 32%
$7,500-$8,000 22%
$7,000-$7,500 18%
$6,500-$7,000 13%
$40,408 Vol.
$40,408 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$20,872 Vol.
10%
$6,000-$6,500
$2,312 Vol.
8%
$6,500-$7,000
$4,408 Vol.
13%
$7,000-$7,500
$2,554 Vol.
18%
$7,500-$8,000
$4,071 Vol.
22%
>$8,000
$6,190 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."**Strong second-quarter earnings growth, led by AI-driven capital spending and upward EPS revisions across major brokerages, underpins trader positioning favoring S&P 500 levels at or above 7,500 by year-end.** With the index near 7,676 as of late August 2026, Wall Street strategists have lifted median targets to 7,900 in recent Reuters polling, with several houses at 8,000–8,100 on resilient profit momentum and a broadening earnings base. These factors explain the 37% market-implied probability on a close above 8,000 and the combined 77% odds above 7,000. Near-term catalysts include Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, September labor and inflation data, and the September FOMC meeting, which could shift rate expectations and volatility. Lower-probability outcomes below 7,000 price in risks from sticky inflation or policy tightening.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$40,408End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."**Strong second-quarter earnings growth, led by AI-driven capital spending and upward EPS revisions across major brokerages, underpins trader positioning favoring S&P 500 levels at or above 7,500 by year-end.** With the index near 7,676 as of late August 2026, Wall Street strategists have lifted median targets to 7,900 in recent Reuters polling, with several houses at 8,000–8,100 on resilient profit momentum and a broadening earnings base. These factors explain the 37% market-implied probability on a close above 8,000 and the combined 77% odds above 7,000. Near-term catalysts include Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, September labor and inflation data, and the September FOMC meeting, which could shift rate expectations and volatility. Lower-probability outcomes below 7,000 price in risks from sticky inflation or policy tightening.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$40,408End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Strong second-quarter earnings growth, led by AI-driven capital spending and upward EPS revisions across major brokerages, underpins trader positioning favoring S&P 500 levels at or above 7,500 by year-end.** With the index near 7,676 as of late August 2026, Wall Street strategists have lifted median targets to 7,900 in recent Reuters polling, with several houses at 8,000–8,100 on resilient profit momentum and a broadening earnings base. These factors explain the 37% market-implied probability on a close above 8,000 and the combined 77% odds above 7,000. Near-term catalysts include Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, September labor and inflation data, and the September FOMC meeting, which could shift rate expectations and volatility. Lower-probability outcomes below 7,000 price in risks from sticky inflation or policy tightening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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