Strong corporate earnings momentum, fueled by AI-related capital spending and a 33.5% year-over-year adjusted earnings surge in Q2 2026, underpins trader sentiment for the S&P 500 closing above 8,000 by year-end. With the index trading near 7,676 in late August after reaching record highs near 7,799 earlier in the month and posting 12% year-to-date gains, the 37% implied probability on levels above 8,000 reflects optimism that profit growth will outpace any valuation pressure from the Federal Reserve’s 3.50–3.75% policy rate and elevated inflation tied to geopolitical supply shocks. Recent analyst polls target roughly 7,900 by December 2026, while upcoming FOMC meetings and further earnings reports remain key swing factors that could shift probabilities across the $7,500–8,000 and higher buckets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated>$8,000 32%
$7,500-$8,000 22%
$7,000-$7,500 18%
$6,500-$7,000 14%
$40,408 Vol.
$40,408 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
9%
$6,000-$6,500
7%
$6,500-$7,000
14%
$7,000-$7,500
18%
$7,500-$8,000
22%
>$8,000
37%
>$8,000 32%
$7,500-$8,000 22%
$7,000-$7,500 18%
$6,500-$7,000 14%
$40,408 Vol.
$40,408 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$20,872 Vol.
9%
$6,000-$6,500
$2,312 Vol.
7%
$6,500-$7,000
$4,408 Vol.
14%
$7,000-$7,500
$2,554 Vol.
18%
$7,500-$8,000
$4,071 Vol.
22%
>$8,000
$6,190 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong corporate earnings momentum, fueled by AI-related capital spending and a 33.5% year-over-year adjusted earnings surge in Q2 2026, underpins trader sentiment for the S&P 500 closing above 8,000 by year-end. With the index trading near 7,676 in late August after reaching record highs near 7,799 earlier in the month and posting 12% year-to-date gains, the 37% implied probability on levels above 8,000 reflects optimism that profit growth will outpace any valuation pressure from the Federal Reserve’s 3.50–3.75% policy rate and elevated inflation tied to geopolitical supply shocks. Recent analyst polls target roughly 7,900 by December 2026, while upcoming FOMC meetings and further earnings reports remain key swing factors that could shift probabilities across the $7,500–8,000 and higher buckets.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$40,408End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong corporate earnings momentum, fueled by AI-related capital spending and a 33.5% year-over-year adjusted earnings surge in Q2 2026, underpins trader sentiment for the S&P 500 closing above 8,000 by year-end. With the index trading near 7,676 in late August after reaching record highs near 7,799 earlier in the month and posting 12% year-to-date gains, the 37% implied probability on levels above 8,000 reflects optimism that profit growth will outpace any valuation pressure from the Federal Reserve’s 3.50–3.75% policy rate and elevated inflation tied to geopolitical supply shocks. Recent analyst polls target roughly 7,900 by December 2026, while upcoming FOMC meetings and further earnings reports remain key swing factors that could shift probabilities across the $7,500–8,000 and higher buckets.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$40,408End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Strong corporate earnings momentum, fueled by AI-related capital spending and a 33.5% year-over-year adjusted earnings surge in Q2 2026, underpins trader sentiment for the S&P 500 closing above 8,000 by year-end. With the index trading near 7,676 in late August after reaching record highs near 7,799 earlier in the month and posting 12% year-to-date gains, the 37% implied probability on levels above 8,000 reflects optimism that profit growth will outpace any valuation pressure from the Federal Reserve’s 3.50–3.75% policy rate and elevated inflation tied to geopolitical supply shocks. Recent analyst polls target roughly 7,900 by December 2026, while upcoming FOMC meetings and further earnings reports remain key swing factors that could shift probabilities across the $7,500–8,000 and higher buckets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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