Zohran Mamdani has emerged as the clear frontrunner in prediction markets for TIME’s 2026 Person of the Year, with market-implied odds around 36 percent on Polymarket and Kalshi, ahead of Pope Leo XIV and a trailing Donald Trump. Mamdani’s rapid national profile as New York City’s youngest mayor in a century, built on progressive policies and high-visibility clashes with the White House, has driven trader sentiment and shifted momentum away from Trump, who held an early lead. The first American pope’s public criticisms of administration immigration and foreign policy moves have also bolstered his position. With the announcement expected in early to mid-December, ongoing political developments and media narratives will likely shape the final outcome in this unusually open race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTIME Person of the Year 2026
TIME Person of the Year 2026
$34,564 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Zohran Mamdani
34%
Pope Leo XIV
15%
Donald Trump
13%
Jeremy Hansen
9%
Victor Glover
8%
Benjamin Netanyahu
7%
Elon Musk
7%
Christina Koch
7%
Reid Wiseman
6%
Bad Bunny
6%
Artificial Intelligence
6%
James Talarico
5%
Dario Amodei
5%
Shehbaz Sharif
5%
Jerome Powell
4%
Sam Altman
4%
Péter Magyar
4%
Taylor Swift
4%
Marco Rubio
3%
Alysa Liu
3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
3%
ChatGPT
2%
$34,564 Vol.
Zohran Mamdani
$12,872 Vol.
34%
Pope Leo XIV
$7,518 Vol.
15%
Donald Trump
$1,437 Vol.
13%
Jeremy Hansen
$75 Vol.
9%
Victor Glover
$60 Vol.
8%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$188 Vol.
7%
Elon Musk
$1,968 Vol.
7%
Christina Koch
$135 Vol.
7%
Reid Wiseman
$108 Vol.
6%
Bad Bunny
$100 Vol.
6%
Artificial Intelligence
$162 Vol.
6%
James Talarico
$58 Vol.
5%
Dario Amodei
$177 Vol.
5%
Shehbaz Sharif
$140 Vol.
5%
Jerome Powell
$43 Vol.
4%
Sam Altman
$240 Vol.
4%
Péter Magyar
$208 Vol.
4%
Taylor Swift
$93 Vol.
4%
Marco Rubio
$374 Vol.
3%
Alysa Liu
$69 Vol.
3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
$8,444 Vol.
3%
ChatGPT
$96 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year.
Additionally, the following rules apply:
If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year.
If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person.
If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous.
If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017.
If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.Zohran Mamdani has emerged as the clear frontrunner in prediction markets for TIME’s 2026 Person of the Year, with market-implied odds around 36 percent on Polymarket and Kalshi, ahead of Pope Leo XIV and a trailing Donald Trump. Mamdani’s rapid national profile as New York City’s youngest mayor in a century, built on progressive policies and high-visibility clashes with the White House, has driven trader sentiment and shifted momentum away from Trump, who held an early lead. The first American pope’s public criticisms of administration immigration and foreign policy moves have also bolstered his position. With the announcement expected in early to mid-December, ongoing political developments and media narratives will likely shape the final outcome in this unusually open race.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year.
Additionally, the following rules apply:
If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year.
If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person.
If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous.
If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017.
If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.
A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year.
Additionally, the following rules apply:
If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year.
If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person.
If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous.
If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017.
If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.
Market Opened: May 26, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volume
$34,564End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year.
Additionally, the following rules apply:
If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year.
If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person.
If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous.
If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017.
If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.Zohran Mamdani has emerged as the clear frontrunner in prediction markets for TIME’s 2026 Person of the Year, with market-implied odds around 36 percent on Polymarket and Kalshi, ahead of Pope Leo XIV and a trailing Donald Trump. Mamdani’s rapid national profile as New York City’s youngest mayor in a century, built on progressive policies and high-visibility clashes with the White House, has driven trader sentiment and shifted momentum away from Trump, who held an early lead. The first American pope’s public criticisms of administration immigration and foreign policy moves have also bolstered his position. With the announcement expected in early to mid-December, ongoing political developments and media narratives will likely shape the final outcome in this unusually open race.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year.
Additionally, the following rules apply:
If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year.
If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person.
If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous.
If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017.
If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.
A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year.
Additionally, the following rules apply:
If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year.
If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person.
If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous.
If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017.
If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.
Volume
$34,564End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Zohran Mamdani has emerged as the clear frontrunner in prediction markets for TIME’s 2026 Person of the Year, with market-implied odds around 36 percent on Polymarket and Kalshi, ahead of Pope Leo XIV and a trailing Donald Trump. Mamdani’s rapid national profile as New York City’s youngest mayor in a century, built on progressive policies and high-visibility clashes with the White House, has driven trader sentiment and shifted momentum away from Trump, who held an early lead. The first American pope’s public criticisms of administration immigration and foreign policy moves have also bolstered his position. With the announcement expected in early to mid-December, ongoing political developments and media narratives will likely shape the final outcome in this unusually open race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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