SpaceX's Starship Version 3 vehicles now include integrated androgynous docking ports and propellant transfer hardware, validated through recent ground tests and Flight 13's July 2026 performance that demonstrated reliable payload deployment, in-space Raptor relight, and improved reentry. This hardware directly supports the planned orbital refueling demonstration requiring two Starships to rendezvous, dock for at least 60 seconds in stable Earth orbit above 100 km perigee, and transfer methane and oxygen via automated couplers. No such ship-to-ship docking has occurred yet, however, as the program remains focused on tower catches, booster recovery, and achieving consistent orbital capability. Flight 14 preparations and multi-pad infrastructure expansions could accelerate timelines toward the first refueling test later in 2026, though FAA licensing and iterative vehicle maturation introduce ongoing uncertainty for near-term resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$64,873 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
7%
December 31, 2027
58%
$64,873 Vol.
December 31, 2026
$42,071 Vol.
7%
December 31, 2027
$22,801 Vol.
58%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's Starship Version 3 vehicles now include integrated androgynous docking ports and propellant transfer hardware, validated through recent ground tests and Flight 13's July 2026 performance that demonstrated reliable payload deployment, in-space Raptor relight, and improved reentry. This hardware directly supports the planned orbital refueling demonstration requiring two Starships to rendezvous, dock for at least 60 seconds in stable Earth orbit above 100 km perigee, and transfer methane and oxygen via automated couplers. No such ship-to-ship docking has occurred yet, however, as the program remains focused on tower catches, booster recovery, and achieving consistent orbital capability. Flight 14 preparations and multi-pad infrastructure expansions could accelerate timelines toward the first refueling test later in 2026, though FAA licensing and iterative vehicle maturation introduce ongoing uncertainty for near-term resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$64,873End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's Starship Version 3 vehicles now include integrated androgynous docking ports and propellant transfer hardware, validated through recent ground tests and Flight 13's July 2026 performance that demonstrated reliable payload deployment, in-space Raptor relight, and improved reentry. This hardware directly supports the planned orbital refueling demonstration requiring two Starships to rendezvous, dock for at least 60 seconds in stable Earth orbit above 100 km perigee, and transfer methane and oxygen via automated couplers. No such ship-to-ship docking has occurred yet, however, as the program remains focused on tower catches, booster recovery, and achieving consistent orbital capability. Flight 14 preparations and multi-pad infrastructure expansions could accelerate timelines toward the first refueling test later in 2026, though FAA licensing and iterative vehicle maturation introduce ongoing uncertainty for near-term resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$64,873End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX's Starship Version 3 vehicles now include integrated androgynous docking ports and propellant transfer hardware, validated through recent ground tests and Flight 13's July 2026 performance that demonstrated reliable payload deployment, in-space Raptor relight, and improved reentry. This hardware directly supports the planned orbital refueling demonstration requiring two Starships to rendezvous, dock for at least 60 seconds in stable Earth orbit above 100 km perigee, and transfer methane and oxygen via automated couplers. No such ship-to-ship docking has occurred yet, however, as the program remains focused on tower catches, booster recovery, and achieving consistent orbital capability. Flight 14 preparations and multi-pad infrastructure expansions could accelerate timelines toward the first refueling test later in 2026, though FAA licensing and iterative vehicle maturation introduce ongoing uncertainty for near-term resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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