Everton leads the market at 77% implied probability because Jack Grealish has made clear his preference for a return to the club where he thrived on loan last season, posting two goals and six assists in 20 appearances before a foot injury. Recent reports from the final days of the window confirm ongoing talks between the player’s camp and the Toffees, who stayed in contact after declining a £50m purchase option. Sunderland’s late loan bid with wage contributions and a permanent option drew attention but appears sidelined by Grealish’s stance. Manchester City at 16% reflects the possibility he stays under Enzo Maresca, who has used him off the bench in early matches while remaining open to a departure before the September 1 deadline, given the winger’s final contract year. Interest from Aston Villa and others registers far lower amid the lack of concrete bids.