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Geopolitics·Saudi

Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?

icon for Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?
Geopolitics·Saudi

Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?

NEW

$40,939 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$40,939 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Oman

Oman

$732 Vol.

34%

icon for Qatar

Qatar

$1,335 Vol.

14%

icon for Egypt

Egypt

$2,828 Vol.

12%

icon for Kuwait

Kuwait

$1,454 Vol.

11%

icon for Syria

Syria

$2,391 Vol.

10%

icon for Iran

Iran

$1,234 Vol.

10%

icon for Sudan

Sudan

$1,940 Vol.

9%

icon for Bahrain

Bahrain

$1,193 Vol.

9%

icon for Iraq

Iraq

$1,531 Vol.

9%

icon for Somalia

Somalia

$2,737 Vol.

9%

icon for Yemen

Yemen

$0 Vol.

8%

icon for Algeria

Algeria

$0 Vol.

7%

icon for Jordan

Jordan

$1,012 Vol.

7%

icon for Morocco

Morocco

$1,591 Vol.

6%

icon for United Arab Emirates

United Arab Emirates

$19,978 Vol.

5%

icon for Lebanon

Lebanon

$982 Vol.

50%

The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all. The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The listed country will be considered to have formally joined if either of the following occurs: - the country signs the Agreement or a formal accession protocol or instrument that, by its terms or official characterization, makes it a party, member, or signatory; or - the country and the Agreement’s existing parties officially announce, jointly or separately, that the country has become a party, member, or signatory. Statements of intent, applications, invitations to join, negotiations, parliamentary authorization, approval in principle, or general defense cooperation will not qualify. A separate bilateral or multilateral defense agreement will not qualify unless it is officially identified as accession to the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement. Once a qualifying accession has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent withdrawal, suspension, reversal, or termination. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, and the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, signed on August 7, 2026, by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, establishes mutual defense obligations and expanded cooperation, with explicit openness to additional members seeking regional stability. Turkish President Erdoğan has publicly invited participation from other states, while officials have highlighted Egypt as a likely early addition due to its existing coordination with the three signatories and ongoing internal reviews. Diplomatic signals point to interest from several Gulf states including Qatar and Kuwait, alongside mentions of Jordan, Syria, Azerbaijan, and Bangladesh. Unconfirmed reports indicate Iran received an invitation and is assessing participation. With the December 31 deadline approaching, trader focus centers on the pace of bilateral consultations, technical alignment on defense commitments, and any formal accession announcements in the coming months.

The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all. The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The listed country will be considered to have formally joined if either of the following occurs:
- the country signs the Agreement or a formal accession protocol or instrument that, by its terms or official characterization, makes it a party, member, or signatory; or
- the country and the Agreement’s existing parties officially announce, jointly or separately, that the country has become a party, member, or signatory.

Statements of intent, applications, invitations to join, negotiations, parliamentary authorization, approval in principle, or general defense cooperation will not qualify. A separate bilateral or multilateral defense agreement will not qualify unless it is officially identified as accession to the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement.

Once a qualifying accession has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent withdrawal, suspension, reversal, or termination.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, and the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$40,939
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 8:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all. The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The listed country will be considered to have formally joined if either of the following occurs: - the country signs the Agreement or a formal accession protocol or instrument that, by its terms or official characterization, makes it a party, member, or signatory; or - the country and the Agreement’s existing parties officially announce, jointly or separately, that the country has become a party, member, or signatory. Statements of intent, applications, invitations to join, negotiations, parliamentary authorization, approval in principle, or general defense cooperation will not qualify. A separate bilateral or multilateral defense agreement will not qualify unless it is officially identified as accession to the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement. Once a qualifying accession has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent withdrawal, suspension, reversal, or termination. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, and the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all. The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The listed country will be considered to have formally joined if either of the following occurs: - the country signs the Agreement or a formal accession protocol or instrument that, by its terms or official characterization, makes it a party, member, or signatory; or - the country and the Agreement’s existing parties officially announce, jointly or separately, that the country has become a party, member, or signatory. Statements of intent, applications, invitations to join, negotiations, parliamentary authorization, approval in principle, or general defense cooperation will not qualify. A separate bilateral or multilateral defense agreement will not qualify unless it is officially identified as accession to the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement. Once a qualifying accession has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent withdrawal, suspension, reversal, or termination. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, and the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, signed on August 7, 2026, by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, establishes mutual defense obligations and expanded cooperation, with explicit openness to additional members seeking regional stability. Turkish President Erdoğan has publicly invited participation from other states, while officials have highlighted Egypt as a likely early addition due to its existing coordination with the three signatories and ongoing internal reviews. Diplomatic signals point to interest from several Gulf states including Qatar and Kuwait, alongside mentions of Jordan, Syria, Azerbaijan, and Bangladesh. Unconfirmed reports indicate Iran received an invitation and is assessing participation. With the December 31 deadline approaching, trader focus centers on the pace of bilateral consultations, technical alignment on defense commitments, and any formal accession announcements in the coming months.

The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all. The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The listed country will be considered to have formally joined if either of the following occurs:
- the country signs the Agreement or a formal accession protocol or instrument that, by its terms or official characterization, makes it a party, member, or signatory; or
- the country and the Agreement’s existing parties officially announce, jointly or separately, that the country has become a party, member, or signatory.

Statements of intent, applications, invitations to join, negotiations, parliamentary authorization, approval in principle, or general defense cooperation will not qualify. A separate bilateral or multilateral defense agreement will not qualify unless it is officially identified as accession to the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement.

Once a qualifying accession has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent withdrawal, suspension, reversal, or termination.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, and the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$40,939
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 8:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all. The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The listed country will be considered to have formally joined if either of the following occurs: - the country signs the Agreement or a formal accession protocol or instrument that, by its terms or official characterization, makes it a party, member, or signatory; or - the country and the Agreement’s existing parties officially announce, jointly or separately, that the country has become a party, member, or signatory. Statements of intent, applications, invitations to join, negotiations, parliamentary authorization, approval in principle, or general defense cooperation will not qualify. A separate bilateral or multilateral defense agreement will not qualify unless it is officially identified as accession to the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement. Once a qualifying accession has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent withdrawal, suspension, reversal, or termination. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, and the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lebanon" at 50%, followed by "Oman" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?" has generated $40.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 25, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?" is "Lebanon" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Oman" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.