Anthropic’s earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, and its accelerated push toward a potential October Nasdaq debut are the main drivers behind the 94.5% market-implied odds favoring it over OpenAI. The company’s rapid revenue growth, recent $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion valuation, and preparations for a record-sized raise position it to complete SEC review and roadshow activities ahead of its rival. OpenAI’s June 8 filing has been followed by internal signals, including CFO Sarah Friar’s comments pointing to a 2027 timeline, tied to its $1 trillion valuation target, heavy compute commitments, and caution after SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility. While trader consensus reflects these timelines, a surprise acceleration in OpenAI’s readiness or regulatory or market-related delays for Anthropic could still shift the outcome before either company prices.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic
95% chance
$319,904 Vol.
$319,904 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
Anthropic
95% chance
$319,904 Vol.
$319,904 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, and its accelerated push toward a potential October Nasdaq debut are the main drivers behind the 94.5% market-implied odds favoring it over OpenAI. The company’s rapid revenue growth, recent $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion valuation, and preparations for a record-sized raise position it to complete SEC review and roadshow activities ahead of its rival. OpenAI’s June 8 filing has been followed by internal signals, including CFO Sarah Friar’s comments pointing to a 2027 timeline, tied to its $1 trillion valuation target, heavy compute commitments, and caution after SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility. While trader consensus reflects these timelines, a surprise acceleration in OpenAI’s readiness or regulatory or market-related delays for Anthropic could still shift the outcome before either company prices.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$319,904End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, and its accelerated push toward a potential October Nasdaq debut are the main drivers behind the 94.5% market-implied odds favoring it over OpenAI. The company’s rapid revenue growth, recent $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion valuation, and preparations for a record-sized raise position it to complete SEC review and roadshow activities ahead of its rival. OpenAI’s June 8 filing has been followed by internal signals, including CFO Sarah Friar’s comments pointing to a 2027 timeline, tied to its $1 trillion valuation target, heavy compute commitments, and caution after SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility. While trader consensus reflects these timelines, a surprise acceleration in OpenAI’s readiness or regulatory or market-related delays for Anthropic could still shift the outcome before either company prices.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$319,904End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, and its accelerated push toward a potential October Nasdaq debut are the main drivers behind the 94.5% market-implied odds favoring it over OpenAI. The company’s rapid revenue growth, recent $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion valuation, and preparations for a record-sized raise position it to complete SEC review and roadshow activities ahead of its rival. OpenAI’s June 8 filing has been followed by internal signals, including CFO Sarah Friar’s comments pointing to a 2027 timeline, tied to its $1 trillion valuation target, heavy compute commitments, and caution after SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility. While trader consensus reflects these timelines, a surprise acceleration in OpenAI’s readiness or regulatory or market-related delays for Anthropic could still shift the outcome before either company prices.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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