**Apple’s lobbying for US approval to source CXMT DRAM amid 2026 memory shortages and 50-60%+ price surges has not translated into confirmed large-volume purchases.** The company began testing CXMT chips for China-market devices and sought assurances against Entity List restrictions, given CXMT’s placement on the Pentagon’s 1260H list. However, CXMT operates at ~95% utilization with capacity fully committed through 2027 primarily to domestic customers like Huawei and Xiaomi. Apple’s estimated China-focused demand of ~600 million GB would require roughly 6.6% of CXMT’s year-end output, yet analysts note CXMT has little spare capacity and shows limited interest in major Apple allocations, preferring to leverage any partnership for branding while prioritizing local needs. Political opposition from US lawmakers and the broader AI-driven supply squeeze further constrain the likelihood of meaningful 2026 purchases, supporting the current market-implied odds favoring “No.” Key near-term catalysts include any explicit White House exemption or capacity expansion updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated43% chance
$17,802 Vol.
$17,802 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
43% chance
$17,802 Vol.
$17,802 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Apple’s lobbying for US approval to source CXMT DRAM amid 2026 memory shortages and 50-60%+ price surges has not translated into confirmed large-volume purchases.** The company began testing CXMT chips for China-market devices and sought assurances against Entity List restrictions, given CXMT’s placement on the Pentagon’s 1260H list. However, CXMT operates at ~95% utilization with capacity fully committed through 2027 primarily to domestic customers like Huawei and Xiaomi. Apple’s estimated China-focused demand of ~600 million GB would require roughly 6.6% of CXMT’s year-end output, yet analysts note CXMT has little spare capacity and shows limited interest in major Apple allocations, preferring to leverage any partnership for branding while prioritizing local needs. Political opposition from US lawmakers and the broader AI-driven supply squeeze further constrain the likelihood of meaningful 2026 purchases, supporting the current market-implied odds favoring “No.” Key near-term catalysts include any explicit White House exemption or capacity expansion updates.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volume
$17,802End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Apple’s lobbying for US approval to source CXMT DRAM amid 2026 memory shortages and 50-60%+ price surges has not translated into confirmed large-volume purchases.** The company began testing CXMT chips for China-market devices and sought assurances against Entity List restrictions, given CXMT’s placement on the Pentagon’s 1260H list. However, CXMT operates at ~95% utilization with capacity fully committed through 2027 primarily to domestic customers like Huawei and Xiaomi. Apple’s estimated China-focused demand of ~600 million GB would require roughly 6.6% of CXMT’s year-end output, yet analysts note CXMT has little spare capacity and shows limited interest in major Apple allocations, preferring to leverage any partnership for branding while prioritizing local needs. Political opposition from US lawmakers and the broader AI-driven supply squeeze further constrain the likelihood of meaningful 2026 purchases, supporting the current market-implied odds favoring “No.” Key near-term catalysts include any explicit White House exemption or capacity expansion updates.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$17,802End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Apple’s lobbying for US approval to source CXMT DRAM amid 2026 memory shortages and 50-60%+ price surges has not translated into confirmed large-volume purchases.** The company began testing CXMT chips for China-market devices and sought assurances against Entity List restrictions, given CXMT’s placement on the Pentagon’s 1260H list. However, CXMT operates at ~95% utilization with capacity fully committed through 2027 primarily to domestic customers like Huawei and Xiaomi. Apple’s estimated China-focused demand of ~600 million GB would require roughly 6.6% of CXMT’s year-end output, yet analysts note CXMT has little spare capacity and shows limited interest in major Apple allocations, preferring to leverage any partnership for branding while prioritizing local needs. Political opposition from US lawmakers and the broader AI-driven supply squeeze further constrain the likelihood of meaningful 2026 purchases, supporting the current market-implied odds favoring “No.” Key near-term catalysts include any explicit White House exemption or capacity expansion updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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