**Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s control of the New York City Rent Guidelines Board has driven the high “Yes” probability on this market.** After winning the 2025 mayoral election, Mamdani appointed six of the board’s nine members. On June 25, 2026, that board voted 7-1 to set a 0% rent increase on both one- and two-year leases for roughly one million rent-stabilized apartments, effective for new leases beginning October 1, 2026. This action directly satisfies the market’s criteria for a citywide freeze on rent-stabilized units by December 31, 2026. The decision fulfilled a central campaign pledge and marked the first two-year freeze in the board’s history. A landlord representative resigned in protest hours before the vote, citing politicization, and real-estate groups have signaled potential legal challenges. Those factors account for the remaining probability assigned to “No,” but the freeze order itself is already finalized and scheduled to take effect well before 2027. No subsequent developments have altered the board’s ruling or introduced new procedural barriers as of late August 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated77% chance
$287,039 Vol.
$287,039 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
77% chance
$287,039 Vol.
$287,039 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Rent Guidelines Board implements rent adjustments at 0.0 % for both one-year and two-year renewal leases for rent-stabilized apartments citywide by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered implemented only if a 0.0 % increases for both one-year and two-year renewal leases is in effect by the resolution date. An announced intention or proposed order not yet effective will not qualify. Orders that are blocked, enjoined, or otherwise prevented from taking effect by the deadline will not qualify.
If the policy is enacted through another official mechanism, including but not limited to a mayoral executive order, local legislation, or state law, and goes into effect by the resolution date it will qualify.
Orders that apply only to one lease term (e.g., 0 % on one-year but > 0 % on two-year), apply only to specific unit types (e.g., hotels or SROs), or relate to non-stabilized units will not qualify. Policies which include limited exceptions — such as exclusions for specific categories of rent-stabilized units (e.g., hardship exemptions, temporarily exempt buildings, or administrative carveouts) — will still qualify as long as a general policy of 0 % rent adjustment for both one-year and two-year renewal leases on rent-stabilized apartments and lofts is in effect citywide.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will immediately resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official Rent Guidelines Board materials.**Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s control of the New York City Rent Guidelines Board has driven the high “Yes” probability on this market.** After winning the 2025 mayoral election, Mamdani appointed six of the board’s nine members. On June 25, 2026, that board voted 7-1 to set a 0% rent increase on both one- and two-year leases for roughly one million rent-stabilized apartments, effective for new leases beginning October 1, 2026. This action directly satisfies the market’s criteria for a citywide freeze on rent-stabilized units by December 31, 2026.
The decision fulfilled a central campaign pledge and marked the first two-year freeze in the board’s history. A landlord representative resigned in protest hours before the vote, citing politicization, and real-estate groups have signaled potential legal challenges. Those factors account for the remaining probability assigned to “No,” but the freeze order itself is already finalized and scheduled to take effect well before 2027. No subsequent developments have altered the board’s ruling or introduced new procedural barriers as of late August 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Rent Guidelines Board implements rent adjustments at 0.0 % for both one-year and two-year renewal leases for rent-stabilized apartments citywide by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered implemented only if a 0.0 % increases for both one-year and two-year renewal leases is in effect by the resolution date. An announced intention or proposed order not yet effective will not qualify. Orders that are blocked, enjoined, or otherwise prevented from taking effect by the deadline will not qualify.
If the policy is enacted through another official mechanism, including but not limited to a mayoral executive order, local legislation, or state law, and goes into effect by the resolution date it will qualify.
Orders that apply only to one lease term (e.g., 0 % on one-year but > 0 % on two-year), apply only to specific unit types (e.g., hotels or SROs), or relate to non-stabilized units will not qualify. Policies which include limited exceptions — such as exclusions for specific categories of rent-stabilized units (e.g., hardship exemptions, temporarily exempt buildings, or administrative carveouts) — will still qualify as long as a general policy of 0 % rent adjustment for both one-year and two-year renewal leases on rent-stabilized apartments and lofts is in effect citywide.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will immediately resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official Rent Guidelines Board materials.
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Rent Guidelines Board implements rent adjustments at 0.0 % for both one-year and two-year renewal leases for rent-stabilized apartments citywide by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered implemented only if a 0.0 % increases for both one-year and two-year renewal leases is in effect by the resolution date. An announced intention or proposed order not yet effective will not qualify. Orders that are blocked, enjoined, or otherwise prevented from taking effect by the deadline will not qualify.
If the policy is enacted through another official mechanism, including but not limited to a mayoral executive order, local legislation, or state law, and goes into effect by the resolution date it will qualify.
Orders that apply only to one lease term (e.g., 0 % on one-year but > 0 % on two-year), apply only to specific unit types (e.g., hotels or SROs), or relate to non-stabilized units will not qualify. Policies which include limited exceptions — such as exclusions for specific categories of rent-stabilized units (e.g., hardship exemptions, temporarily exempt buildings, or administrative carveouts) — will still qualify as long as a general policy of 0 % rent adjustment for both one-year and two-year renewal leases on rent-stabilized apartments and lofts is in effect citywide.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will immediately resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official Rent Guidelines Board materials.
Market Opened: Nov 3, 2025, 9:21 PM ET
Volume
$287,039End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Rent Guidelines Board implements rent adjustments at 0.0 % for both one-year and two-year renewal leases for rent-stabilized apartments citywide by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered implemented only if a 0.0 % increases for both one-year and two-year renewal leases is in effect by the resolution date. An announced intention or proposed order not yet effective will not qualify. Orders that are blocked, enjoined, or otherwise prevented from taking effect by the deadline will not qualify.
If the policy is enacted through another official mechanism, including but not limited to a mayoral executive order, local legislation, or state law, and goes into effect by the resolution date it will qualify.
Orders that apply only to one lease term (e.g., 0 % on one-year but > 0 % on two-year), apply only to specific unit types (e.g., hotels or SROs), or relate to non-stabilized units will not qualify. Policies which include limited exceptions — such as exclusions for specific categories of rent-stabilized units (e.g., hardship exemptions, temporarily exempt buildings, or administrative carveouts) — will still qualify as long as a general policy of 0 % rent adjustment for both one-year and two-year renewal leases on rent-stabilized apartments and lofts is in effect citywide.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will immediately resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official Rent Guidelines Board materials.**Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s control of the New York City Rent Guidelines Board has driven the high “Yes” probability on this market.** After winning the 2025 mayoral election, Mamdani appointed six of the board’s nine members. On June 25, 2026, that board voted 7-1 to set a 0% rent increase on both one- and two-year leases for roughly one million rent-stabilized apartments, effective for new leases beginning October 1, 2026. This action directly satisfies the market’s criteria for a citywide freeze on rent-stabilized units by December 31, 2026.
The decision fulfilled a central campaign pledge and marked the first two-year freeze in the board’s history. A landlord representative resigned in protest hours before the vote, citing politicization, and real-estate groups have signaled potential legal challenges. Those factors account for the remaining probability assigned to “No,” but the freeze order itself is already finalized and scheduled to take effect well before 2027. No subsequent developments have altered the board’s ruling or introduced new procedural barriers as of late August 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Rent Guidelines Board implements rent adjustments at 0.0 % for both one-year and two-year renewal leases for rent-stabilized apartments citywide by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered implemented only if a 0.0 % increases for both one-year and two-year renewal leases is in effect by the resolution date. An announced intention or proposed order not yet effective will not qualify. Orders that are blocked, enjoined, or otherwise prevented from taking effect by the deadline will not qualify.
If the policy is enacted through another official mechanism, including but not limited to a mayoral executive order, local legislation, or state law, and goes into effect by the resolution date it will qualify.
Orders that apply only to one lease term (e.g., 0 % on one-year but > 0 % on two-year), apply only to specific unit types (e.g., hotels or SROs), or relate to non-stabilized units will not qualify. Policies which include limited exceptions — such as exclusions for specific categories of rent-stabilized units (e.g., hardship exemptions, temporarily exempt buildings, or administrative carveouts) — will still qualify as long as a general policy of 0 % rent adjustment for both one-year and two-year renewal leases on rent-stabilized apartments and lofts is in effect citywide.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will immediately resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official Rent Guidelines Board materials.
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Rent Guidelines Board implements rent adjustments at 0.0 % for both one-year and two-year renewal leases for rent-stabilized apartments citywide by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered implemented only if a 0.0 % increases for both one-year and two-year renewal leases is in effect by the resolution date. An announced intention or proposed order not yet effective will not qualify. Orders that are blocked, enjoined, or otherwise prevented from taking effect by the deadline will not qualify.
If the policy is enacted through another official mechanism, including but not limited to a mayoral executive order, local legislation, or state law, and goes into effect by the resolution date it will qualify.
Orders that apply only to one lease term (e.g., 0 % on one-year but > 0 % on two-year), apply only to specific unit types (e.g., hotels or SROs), or relate to non-stabilized units will not qualify. Policies which include limited exceptions — such as exclusions for specific categories of rent-stabilized units (e.g., hardship exemptions, temporarily exempt buildings, or administrative carveouts) — will still qualify as long as a general policy of 0 % rent adjustment for both one-year and two-year renewal leases on rent-stabilized apartments and lofts is in effect citywide.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will immediately resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official Rent Guidelines Board materials.
Volume
$287,039End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s control of the New York City Rent Guidelines Board has driven the high “Yes” probability on this market.** After winning the 2025 mayoral election, Mamdani appointed six of the board’s nine members. On June 25, 2026, that board voted 7-1 to set a 0% rent increase on both one- and two-year leases for roughly one million rent-stabilized apartments, effective for new leases beginning October 1, 2026. This action directly satisfies the market’s criteria for a citywide freeze on rent-stabilized units by December 31, 2026. The decision fulfilled a central campaign pledge and marked the first two-year freeze in the board’s history. A landlord representative resigned in protest hours before the vote, citing politicization, and real-estate groups have signaled potential legal challenges. Those factors account for the remaining probability assigned to “No,” but the freeze order itself is already finalized and scheduled to take effect well before 2027. No subsequent developments have altered the board’s ruling or introduced new procedural barriers as of late August 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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