Russian forces initiated cross-border infiltration operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast in June 2026, advancing from positions near Hraniv toward Kozacha Lopan and establishing a presence in the settlement roughly 2 km inside the border. Ukrainian reports confirm fighting between Hraniv and Kozacha Lopan, with Russian units using small-group tactics after earlier gains in nearby hamlets including Veterynarne, Shevchenka, and Hraniv over preceding months; Ukrainian FPV drones and counter-sabotage efforts have targeted these probes. Russian claims by mid-July described control over much of the settlement and its railway station, though Ukrainian assessments describe ongoing contested status with Ukrainian defensive lines holding in southern sections. Trader consensus on near-term capture probabilities incorporates these localized ground dynamics, Ukrainian reinforcement of the sector, and the potential for shifts in force concentration or logistics through the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by...?
Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by...?
$47,753 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
11%
December 31
53%
$47,753 Vol.
September 30
$37,638 Vol.
11%
December 31
$10,115 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the railroad station (50.335310° N, 36.195107° E) located in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+1.png
Location in Kozacha Lopan: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+2.png
Kozacha Lopan Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+3.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/A6sTS2Tt34c8LWv66
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces initiated cross-border infiltration operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast in June 2026, advancing from positions near Hraniv toward Kozacha Lopan and establishing a presence in the settlement roughly 2 km inside the border. Ukrainian reports confirm fighting between Hraniv and Kozacha Lopan, with Russian units using small-group tactics after earlier gains in nearby hamlets including Veterynarne, Shevchenka, and Hraniv over preceding months; Ukrainian FPV drones and counter-sabotage efforts have targeted these probes. Russian claims by mid-July described control over much of the settlement and its railway station, though Ukrainian assessments describe ongoing contested status with Ukrainian defensive lines holding in southern sections. Trader consensus on near-term capture probabilities incorporates these localized ground dynamics, Ukrainian reinforcement of the sector, and the potential for shifts in force concentration or logistics through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the railroad station (50.335310° N, 36.195107° E) located in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+1.png
Location in Kozacha Lopan: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+2.png
Kozacha Lopan Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+3.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/A6sTS2Tt34c8LWv66
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+1.png
Location in Kozacha Lopan: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+2.png
Kozacha Lopan Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+3.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/A6sTS2Tt34c8LWv66
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 1:17 PM ET
Volume
$47,753End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the railroad station (50.335310° N, 36.195107° E) located in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+1.png
Location in Kozacha Lopan: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+2.png
Kozacha Lopan Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+3.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/A6sTS2Tt34c8LWv66
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces initiated cross-border infiltration operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast in June 2026, advancing from positions near Hraniv toward Kozacha Lopan and establishing a presence in the settlement roughly 2 km inside the border. Ukrainian reports confirm fighting between Hraniv and Kozacha Lopan, with Russian units using small-group tactics after earlier gains in nearby hamlets including Veterynarne, Shevchenka, and Hraniv over preceding months; Ukrainian FPV drones and counter-sabotage efforts have targeted these probes. Russian claims by mid-July described control over much of the settlement and its railway station, though Ukrainian assessments describe ongoing contested status with Ukrainian defensive lines holding in southern sections. Trader consensus on near-term capture probabilities incorporates these localized ground dynamics, Ukrainian reinforcement of the sector, and the potential for shifts in force concentration or logistics through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the railroad station (50.335310° N, 36.195107° E) located in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+1.png
Location in Kozacha Lopan: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+2.png
Kozacha Lopan Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+3.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/A6sTS2Tt34c8LWv66
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+1.png
Location in Kozacha Lopan: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+2.png
Kozacha Lopan Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+3.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/A6sTS2Tt34c8LWv66
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$47,753End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces initiated cross-border infiltration operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast in June 2026, advancing from positions near Hraniv toward Kozacha Lopan and establishing a presence in the settlement roughly 2 km inside the border. Ukrainian reports confirm fighting between Hraniv and Kozacha Lopan, with Russian units using small-group tactics after earlier gains in nearby hamlets including Veterynarne, Shevchenka, and Hraniv over preceding months; Ukrainian FPV drones and counter-sabotage efforts have targeted these probes. Russian claims by mid-July described control over much of the settlement and its railway station, though Ukrainian assessments describe ongoing contested status with Ukrainian defensive lines holding in southern sections. Trader consensus on near-term capture probabilities incorporates these localized ground dynamics, Ukrainian reinforcement of the sector, and the potential for shifts in force concentration or logistics through the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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