Alex de Minaur, the sixth seed and world No. 7, faces Italian qualifier Andrea Guerrieri in the first round of the 2026 US Open on outdoor hard courts. Guerrieri, ranked No. 187 after a rapid climb from outside the top 500 early in the year, earned his main-draw debut by winning three qualifying matches, including a comeback victory over No. 171 Joel Schwaerzler. The 27-year-old left-hander has posted strong recent results on hard courts and enters on an 80% win rate in his last 10 matches, though this marks his first Grand Slam appearance. De Minaur brings superior experience, consistent serve-return pressure, and a history of advancing deep at Flushing Meadows, with traders viewing the substantial ranking and match-play gap as the dominant factor in the implied probability.
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Andrea Guerrieri – Alex de Minaur
Moneyline
$68 Vol.
Game Spread
$0 Vol.
This market will resolve to 'Andrea Guerrieri' if Andrea Guerrieri advances against Alex de Minaur.
This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Andrea Guerrieri.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/currentResolver
0x65070BE91...Andrea Guerrieri – Alex de Minaur
Moneyline
$68 Vol.
Game Spread
$0 Vol.
This market will resolve to 'Andrea Guerrieri' if Andrea Guerrieri advances against Alex de Minaur.
This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Andrea Guerrieri.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/currentResolver
0x65070BE91...Alex de Minaur, the sixth seed and world No. 7, faces Italian qualifier Andrea Guerrieri in the first round of the 2026 US Open on outdoor hard courts. Guerrieri, ranked No. 187 after a rapid climb from outside the top 500 early in the year, earned his main-draw debut by winning three qualifying matches, including a comeback victory over No. 171 Joel Schwaerzler. The 27-year-old left-hander has posted strong recent results on hard courts and enters on an 80% win rate in his last 10 matches, though this marks his first Grand Slam appearance. De Minaur brings superior experience, consistent serve-return pressure, and a history of advancing deep at Flushing Meadows, with traders viewing the substantial ranking and match-play gap as the dominant factor in the implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBeware of external links.
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