Amazon’s current market capitalization near $2.8 trillion, following a brief spike above $3 trillion after its July 30, 2026, earnings release, anchors trader positioning around the $2.50–3.00 trillion bin at 35.5% implied probability. Strong Q2 results featured 37% AWS revenue growth to a $169 billion annualized run rate, 20% overall sales expansion, and operating income up 43%, fueled by AI infrastructure demand and advertising momentum, though elevated 2026 capital expenditures now guided at $220 billion have weighed on near-term sentiment. The stock’s 13% year-to-date advance and recent pullback from the $287 high reflect these dynamics alongside broader tech valuation pressures, with the October 2026 earnings report and continued AWS momentum serving as key catalysts that could shift resolution probabilities within the narrow remaining timeframe.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2.50-$3.00T 35%
$3.00-$3.50T 25%
$2.00-$2.50T 17%
$3.50-$4.00T 13%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$2.00T
7%
$2.00-$2.50T
17%
$2.50-$3.00T
35%
$3.00-$3.50T
25%
$3.50-$4.00T
13%
$4.00-$4.50T
6%
$4.50T+
5%
$2.50-$3.00T 35%
$3.00-$3.50T 25%
$2.00-$2.50T 17%
$3.50-$4.00T 13%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$2.00T
$176 Vol.
7%
$2.00-$2.50T
$254 Vol.
17%
$2.50-$3.00T
$549 Vol.
35%
$3.00-$3.50T
$156 Vol.
25%
$3.50-$4.00T
$226 Vol.
13%
$4.00-$4.50T
$160 Vol.
6%
$4.50T+
$240 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Amazon’s current market capitalization near $2.8 trillion, following a brief spike above $3 trillion after its July 30, 2026, earnings release, anchors trader positioning around the $2.50–3.00 trillion bin at 35.5% implied probability. Strong Q2 results featured 37% AWS revenue growth to a $169 billion annualized run rate, 20% overall sales expansion, and operating income up 43%, fueled by AI infrastructure demand and advertising momentum, though elevated 2026 capital expenditures now guided at $220 billion have weighed on near-term sentiment. The stock’s 13% year-to-date advance and recent pullback from the $287 high reflect these dynamics alongside broader tech valuation pressures, with the October 2026 earnings report and continued AWS momentum serving as key catalysts that could shift resolution probabilities within the narrow remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ET
Volume
$1,760End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Amazon’s current market capitalization near $2.8 trillion, following a brief spike above $3 trillion after its July 30, 2026, earnings release, anchors trader positioning around the $2.50–3.00 trillion bin at 35.5% implied probability. Strong Q2 results featured 37% AWS revenue growth to a $169 billion annualized run rate, 20% overall sales expansion, and operating income up 43%, fueled by AI infrastructure demand and advertising momentum, though elevated 2026 capital expenditures now guided at $220 billion have weighed on near-term sentiment. The stock’s 13% year-to-date advance and recent pullback from the $287 high reflect these dynamics alongside broader tech valuation pressures, with the October 2026 earnings report and continued AWS momentum serving as key catalysts that could shift resolution probabilities within the narrow remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$1,760End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amazon’s current market capitalization near $2.8 trillion, following a brief spike above $3 trillion after its July 30, 2026, earnings release, anchors trader positioning around the $2.50–3.00 trillion bin at 35.5% implied probability. Strong Q2 results featured 37% AWS revenue growth to a $169 billion annualized run rate, 20% overall sales expansion, and operating income up 43%, fueled by AI infrastructure demand and advertising momentum, though elevated 2026 capital expenditures now guided at $220 billion have weighed on near-term sentiment. The stock’s 13% year-to-date advance and recent pullback from the $287 high reflect these dynamics alongside broader tech valuation pressures, with the October 2026 earnings report and continued AWS momentum serving as key catalysts that could shift resolution probabilities within the narrow remaining timeframe.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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