**Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price volatility has tilted UK inflation risks upward, supporting trader consensus around a hold at the Bank of England’s November 2026 meeting.** The MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% in its July 2026 decision (6–3 vote), with three members favoring a 25 bp hike to address upside inflation pressures. July CPI rose to 2.9% from 2.6% in June, and the BoE’s July Monetary Policy Report projects a near-term peak near 3.2% in Q4 2026 before easing, driven by higher energy costs feeding through to households and firms. Market-implied odds heavily favor no change (77.5%), reflecting expectations that the central bank will maintain its data-dependent stance amid still-moderate core inflation, a softening labor market (unemployment near 4.9–5.0% with declining vacancies), and GDP growth around 1.1%. Forward OIS curves have priced in limited tightening by year-end, with the next potential hike now pushed toward early 2027. Key upcoming releases—including September CPI, labor data, and any escalation or de-escalation in energy markets—will shape the November outcome, though current conditions point to policy remaining on hold to balance temporary inflation pressures against weaker demand signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 78%
25 bps increase 13%
25 bps decrease 1.5%
50+ bps increase 1.4%
$23,542 Vol.
$23,542 Vol.
Nov 5, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
6%
No change
78%
25 bps increase
13%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 78%
25 bps increase 13%
25 bps decrease 1.5%
50+ bps increase 1.4%
$23,542 Vol.
$23,542 Vol.
Nov 5, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,052 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$1,470 Vol.
6%
No change
$11,297 Vol.
78%
25 bps increase
$6,021 Vol.
13%
50+ bps increase
$2,702 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price volatility has tilted UK inflation risks upward, supporting trader consensus around a hold at the Bank of England’s November 2026 meeting.**
The MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% in its July 2026 decision (6–3 vote), with three members favoring a 25 bp hike to address upside inflation pressures. July CPI rose to 2.9% from 2.6% in June, and the BoE’s July Monetary Policy Report projects a near-term peak near 3.2% in Q4 2026 before easing, driven by higher energy costs feeding through to households and firms. Market-implied odds heavily favor no change (77.5%), reflecting expectations that the central bank will maintain its data-dependent stance amid still-moderate core inflation, a softening labor market (unemployment near 4.9–5.0% with declining vacancies), and GDP growth around 1.1%.
Forward OIS curves have priced in limited tightening by year-end, with the next potential hike now pushed toward early 2027. Key upcoming releases—including September CPI, labor data, and any escalation or de-escalation in energy markets—will shape the November outcome, though current conditions point to policy remaining on hold to balance temporary inflation pressures against weaker demand signals.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Volume
$23,542End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price volatility has tilted UK inflation risks upward, supporting trader consensus around a hold at the Bank of England’s November 2026 meeting.**
The MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% in its July 2026 decision (6–3 vote), with three members favoring a 25 bp hike to address upside inflation pressures. July CPI rose to 2.9% from 2.6% in June, and the BoE’s July Monetary Policy Report projects a near-term peak near 3.2% in Q4 2026 before easing, driven by higher energy costs feeding through to households and firms. Market-implied odds heavily favor no change (77.5%), reflecting expectations that the central bank will maintain its data-dependent stance amid still-moderate core inflation, a softening labor market (unemployment near 4.9–5.0% with declining vacancies), and GDP growth around 1.1%.
Forward OIS curves have priced in limited tightening by year-end, with the next potential hike now pushed toward early 2027. Key upcoming releases—including September CPI, labor data, and any escalation or de-escalation in energy markets—will shape the November outcome, though current conditions point to policy remaining on hold to balance temporary inflation pressures against weaker demand signals.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$23,542End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price volatility has tilted UK inflation risks upward, supporting trader consensus around a hold at the Bank of England’s November 2026 meeting.** The MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% in its July 2026 decision (6–3 vote), with three members favoring a 25 bp hike to address upside inflation pressures. July CPI rose to 2.9% from 2.6% in June, and the BoE’s July Monetary Policy Report projects a near-term peak near 3.2% in Q4 2026 before easing, driven by higher energy costs feeding through to households and firms. Market-implied odds heavily favor no change (77.5%), reflecting expectations that the central bank will maintain its data-dependent stance amid still-moderate core inflation, a softening labor market (unemployment near 4.9–5.0% with declining vacancies), and GDP growth around 1.1%. Forward OIS curves have priced in limited tightening by year-end, with the next potential hike now pushed toward early 2027. Key upcoming releases—including September CPI, labor data, and any escalation or de-escalation in energy markets—will shape the November outcome, though current conditions point to policy remaining on hold to balance temporary inflation pressures against weaker demand signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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