Recent inflation data showing a July 2026 annual rate of 1.5%—the lowest in five years and well inside the Bank of Israel's 1-3% target—has anchored trader expectations for the rescheduled September 1 decision, yet a tight labor market and moderating global easing trends have limited the case for immediate further easing. The Monetary Committee cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.5% in July after three reductions this year, but analysts including Citi highlight the absence of urgency and note the shekel's recent strengthening against the dollar as factors tilting toward a hold. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with the 78% probability of no change underscoring consensus around data-dependent caution amid ongoing geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties, while the 21% chance of a 25 basis point cut captures lingering scope for gradual normalization toward the staff forecast of 3.0% by mid-2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo Change 78%
25 bps cut 22%
50+ bps cut <1%
25 bps hike <1%
$112,564 Vol.
$112,564 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
50+ bps cut
<1%
25 bps cut
22%
No Change
78%
25 bps hike
<1%
50+ bps hike
<1%
No Change 78%
25 bps cut 22%
50+ bps cut <1%
25 bps hike <1%
$112,564 Vol.
$112,564 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
50+ bps cut
$8,264 Vol.
<1%
25 bps cut
$32,480 Vol.
22%
No Change
$63,674 Vol.
78%
25 bps hike
$5,376 Vol.
<1%
50+ bps hike
$2,771 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Israel Monetary Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Israel, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 31, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Israel calendar (https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Israel resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent inflation data showing a July 2026 annual rate of 1.5%—the lowest in five years and well inside the Bank of Israel's 1-3% target—has anchored trader expectations for the rescheduled September 1 decision, yet a tight labor market and moderating global easing trends have limited the case for immediate further easing. The Monetary Committee cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.5% in July after three reductions this year, but analysts including Citi highlight the absence of urgency and note the shekel's recent strengthening against the dollar as factors tilting toward a hold. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with the 78% probability of no change underscoring consensus around data-dependent caution amid ongoing geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties, while the 21% chance of a 25 basis point cut captures lingering scope for gradual normalization toward the staff forecast of 3.0% by mid-2027.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Israel Monetary Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Israel, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 31, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Israel calendar (https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Israel resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Israel, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 31, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Israel calendar (https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Israel resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: May 28, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$112,564End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
May 28, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Israel Monetary Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Israel, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 31, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Israel calendar (https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Israel resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent inflation data showing a July 2026 annual rate of 1.5%—the lowest in five years and well inside the Bank of Israel's 1-3% target—has anchored trader expectations for the rescheduled September 1 decision, yet a tight labor market and moderating global easing trends have limited the case for immediate further easing. The Monetary Committee cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.5% in July after three reductions this year, but analysts including Citi highlight the absence of urgency and note the shekel's recent strengthening against the dollar as factors tilting toward a hold. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with the 78% probability of no change underscoring consensus around data-dependent caution amid ongoing geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties, while the 21% chance of a 25 basis point cut captures lingering scope for gradual normalization toward the staff forecast of 3.0% by mid-2027.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Israel Monetary Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Israel, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 31, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Israel calendar (https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Israel resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Israel, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 31, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Israel calendar (https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Israel resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$112,564End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
May 28, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data showing a July 2026 annual rate of 1.5%—the lowest in five years and well inside the Bank of Israel's 1-3% target—has anchored trader expectations for the rescheduled September 1 decision, yet a tight labor market and moderating global easing trends have limited the case for immediate further easing. The Monetary Committee cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.5% in July after three reductions this year, but analysts including Citi highlight the absence of urgency and note the shekel's recent strengthening against the dollar as factors tilting toward a hold. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with the 78% probability of no change underscoring consensus around data-dependent caution amid ongoing geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties, while the 21% chance of a 25 basis point cut captures lingering scope for gradual normalization toward the staff forecast of 3.0% by mid-2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions