**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the Bank of Japan’s October 2026 policy meeting, reflecting trader expectations that any near-term tightening will likely occur at the September 17-18 gathering.** Recent data and communications have reinforced this path, with Tokyo core CPI accelerating to 1.8% year-over-year in August—its third consecutive increase and approaching the 2% target—while the underlying measure excluding fresh food and energy reached 2.0%. Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino’s August 27 remarks stressed greater attention to upside inflation risks from a weak yen, higher import costs, and AI-driven demand, without pushing back against market pricing of roughly 80-85% odds for a 25 basis point hike in September. With the policy rate already at 1% following the June adjustment, these factors have positioned October as a probable pause point amid ongoing normalization, though persistent price pressures from the Middle East conflict and yen dynamics keep modest probabilities attached to further moves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 86%
25 bps increase 13%
50+ bps increase 2.9%
25 bps decrease <1%
$49,203 Vol.
$49,203 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
86%
25 bps increase
13%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 86%
25 bps increase 13%
50+ bps increase 2.9%
25 bps decrease <1%
$49,203 Vol.
$49,203 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,640 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$3,416 Vol.
1%
No change
$24,643 Vol.
86%
25 bps increase
$15,530 Vol.
13%
50+ bps increase
$2,974 Vol.
3%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the Bank of Japan’s October 2026 policy meeting, reflecting trader expectations that any near-term tightening will likely occur at the September 17-18 gathering.** Recent data and communications have reinforced this path, with Tokyo core CPI accelerating to 1.8% year-over-year in August—its third consecutive increase and approaching the 2% target—while the underlying measure excluding fresh food and energy reached 2.0%. Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino’s August 27 remarks stressed greater attention to upside inflation risks from a weak yen, higher import costs, and AI-driven demand, without pushing back against market pricing of roughly 80-85% odds for a 25 basis point hike in September. With the policy rate already at 1% following the June adjustment, these factors have positioned October as a probable pause point amid ongoing normalization, though persistent price pressures from the Middle East conflict and yen dynamics keep modest probabilities attached to further moves.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$49,203End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the Bank of Japan’s October 2026 policy meeting, reflecting trader expectations that any near-term tightening will likely occur at the September 17-18 gathering.** Recent data and communications have reinforced this path, with Tokyo core CPI accelerating to 1.8% year-over-year in August—its third consecutive increase and approaching the 2% target—while the underlying measure excluding fresh food and energy reached 2.0%. Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino’s August 27 remarks stressed greater attention to upside inflation risks from a weak yen, higher import costs, and AI-driven demand, without pushing back against market pricing of roughly 80-85% odds for a 25 basis point hike in September. With the policy rate already at 1% following the June adjustment, these factors have positioned October as a probable pause point amid ongoing normalization, though persistent price pressures from the Middle East conflict and yen dynamics keep modest probabilities attached to further moves.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$49,203End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the Bank of Japan’s October 2026 policy meeting, reflecting trader expectations that any near-term tightening will likely occur at the September 17-18 gathering.** Recent data and communications have reinforced this path, with Tokyo core CPI accelerating to 1.8% year-over-year in August—its third consecutive increase and approaching the 2% target—while the underlying measure excluding fresh food and energy reached 2.0%. Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino’s August 27 remarks stressed greater attention to upside inflation risks from a weak yen, higher import costs, and AI-driven demand, without pushing back against market pricing of roughly 80-85% odds for a 25 basis point hike in September. With the policy rate already at 1% following the June adjustment, these factors have positioned October as a probable pause point amid ongoing normalization, though persistent price pressures from the Middle East conflict and yen dynamics keep modest probabilities attached to further moves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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