Recent sticky inflation data, with July PCE holding at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, alongside solid Q2 GDP growth and a stable labor market near 4.1% unemployment, have anchored trader expectations for the October FOMC meeting. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed has shifted to a more data-dependent stance after dropping forward guidance and showing hawkish projections that include potential 2026 tightening, supporting the 71.5% implied probability of no change from the 3.50%-3.75% target range. Markets assign a 23.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike due to persistent price pressures from supply shocks, while cut odds remain minimal below 6% combined. Upcoming August releases and the September meeting will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the late-October decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 72%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 4.0%
50+ bps decrease 1.4%
$813,100 Vol.
$813,100 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
72%
25 bps increase
24%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 72%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 4.0%
50+ bps decrease 1.4%
$813,100 Vol.
$813,100 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$150,966 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$250,171 Vol.
4%
No change
$159,080 Vol.
72%
25 bps increase
$155,671 Vol.
24%
50+ bps increase
$97,211 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent sticky inflation data, with July PCE holding at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, alongside solid Q2 GDP growth and a stable labor market near 4.1% unemployment, have anchored trader expectations for the October FOMC meeting. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed has shifted to a more data-dependent stance after dropping forward guidance and showing hawkish projections that include potential 2026 tightening, supporting the 71.5% implied probability of no change from the 3.50%-3.75% target range. Markets assign a 23.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike due to persistent price pressures from supply shocks, while cut odds remain minimal below 6% combined. Upcoming August releases and the September meeting will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the late-October decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$813,100End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent sticky inflation data, with July PCE holding at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, alongside solid Q2 GDP growth and a stable labor market near 4.1% unemployment, have anchored trader expectations for the October FOMC meeting. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed has shifted to a more data-dependent stance after dropping forward guidance and showing hawkish projections that include potential 2026 tightening, supporting the 71.5% implied probability of no change from the 3.50%-3.75% target range. Markets assign a 23.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike due to persistent price pressures from supply shocks, while cut odds remain minimal below 6% combined. Upcoming August releases and the September meeting will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the late-October decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$813,100End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent sticky inflation data, with July PCE holding at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, alongside solid Q2 GDP growth and a stable labor market near 4.1% unemployment, have anchored trader expectations for the October FOMC meeting. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed has shifted to a more data-dependent stance after dropping forward guidance and showing hawkish projections that include potential 2026 tightening, supporting the 71.5% implied probability of no change from the 3.50%-3.75% target range. Markets assign a 23.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike due to persistent price pressures from supply shocks, while cut odds remain minimal below 6% combined. Upcoming August releases and the September meeting will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the late-October decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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