Recent July PCE data showing headline inflation steady at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%—both above the Fed’s 2% target—have kept the market-implied odds for zero or one 25-basis-point hike in 2026 nearly even at 43.5% and 39.0%. Sticky price pressures tied to energy costs from Middle East tensions, combined with a cooling labor market (unemployment at 4.1% and soft payrolls), have created a closely contested outlook among FOMC participants. Minutes reveal divisions, with some favoring tightening if core PCE does not moderate, while others cite risks from weaker growth and upcoming September projections. This data dependence, plus the proximity of remaining 2026 meetings, sustains balanced trader positioning between the two leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
0 (0 bps) 44%
1 (25 bps) 39%
2 (50 bps) 16%
3 (75 bps) 1.7%
$225,787 Vol.
$225,787 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
44%
1 (25 bps)
39%
2 (50 bps)
16%
3 (75 bps)
2%
4 (100 bps)
<1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
0 (0 bps) 44%
1 (25 bps) 39%
2 (50 bps) 16%
3 (75 bps) 1.7%
$225,787 Vol.
$225,787 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$85,664 Vol.
44%
1 (25 bps)
$36,953 Vol.
39%
2 (50 bps)
$56,515 Vol.
16%
3 (75 bps)
$23,464 Vol.
2%
4 (100 bps)
$12,384 Vol.
<1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$10,807 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent July PCE data showing headline inflation steady at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%—both above the Fed’s 2% target—have kept the market-implied odds for zero or one 25-basis-point hike in 2026 nearly even at 43.5% and 39.0%. Sticky price pressures tied to energy costs from Middle East tensions, combined with a cooling labor market (unemployment at 4.1% and soft payrolls), have created a closely contested outlook among FOMC participants. Minutes reveal divisions, with some favoring tightening if core PCE does not moderate, while others cite risks from weaker growth and upcoming September projections. This data dependence, plus the proximity of remaining 2026 meetings, sustains balanced trader positioning between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volume
$225,787End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent July PCE data showing headline inflation steady at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%—both above the Fed’s 2% target—have kept the market-implied odds for zero or one 25-basis-point hike in 2026 nearly even at 43.5% and 39.0%. Sticky price pressures tied to energy costs from Middle East tensions, combined with a cooling labor market (unemployment at 4.1% and soft payrolls), have created a closely contested outlook among FOMC participants. Minutes reveal divisions, with some favoring tightening if core PCE does not moderate, while others cite risks from weaker growth and upcoming September projections. This data dependence, plus the proximity of remaining 2026 meetings, sustains balanced trader positioning between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$225,787End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July PCE data showing headline inflation steady at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%—both above the Fed’s 2% target—have kept the market-implied odds for zero or one 25-basis-point hike in 2026 nearly even at 43.5% and 39.0%. Sticky price pressures tied to energy costs from Middle East tensions, combined with a cooling labor market (unemployment at 4.1% and soft payrolls), have created a closely contested outlook among FOMC participants. Minutes reveal divisions, with some favoring tightening if core PCE does not moderate, while others cite risks from weaker growth and upcoming September projections. This data dependence, plus the proximity of remaining 2026 meetings, sustains balanced trader positioning between the two leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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