Recent July PCE inflation data, showing a 3.7% year-over-year rise (up from 3.6%) with core at 3.3%, has modestly lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to around 36–44% in fed funds futures. This keeps the next-rate-change decision closely balanced near 50% probability, as persistent above-target inflation and Chair Warsh’s hawkish rhetoric contrast with the Fed’s repeated holds at the 3.50–3.75% range, solid but not overheating labor conditions (4.3% unemployment), and economist consensus favoring steady policy through year-end. Key upcoming releases on August CPI, employment data, and the September Summary of Economic Projections could shift the balance by clarifying whether inflation pressures warrant action or support patience.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHike
51% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2028
Hike
51% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2028
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent July PCE inflation data, showing a 3.7% year-over-year rise (up from 3.6%) with core at 3.3%, has modestly lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to around 36–44% in fed funds futures. This keeps the next-rate-change decision closely balanced near 50% probability, as persistent above-target inflation and Chair Warsh’s hawkish rhetoric contrast with the Fed’s repeated holds at the 3.50–3.75% range, solid but not overheating labor conditions (4.3% unemployment), and economist consensus favoring steady policy through year-end. Key upcoming releases on August CPI, employment data, and the September Summary of Economic Projections could shift the balance by clarifying whether inflation pressures warrant action or support patience.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Volume
$3,410End Date
Dec 31, 2028Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent July PCE inflation data, showing a 3.7% year-over-year rise (up from 3.6%) with core at 3.3%, has modestly lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to around 36–44% in fed funds futures. This keeps the next-rate-change decision closely balanced near 50% probability, as persistent above-target inflation and Chair Warsh’s hawkish rhetoric contrast with the Fed’s repeated holds at the 3.50–3.75% range, solid but not overheating labor conditions (4.3% unemployment), and economist consensus favoring steady policy through year-end. Key upcoming releases on August CPI, employment data, and the September Summary of Economic Projections could shift the balance by clarifying whether inflation pressures warrant action or support patience.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$3,410End Date
Dec 31, 2028Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent July PCE inflation data, showing a 3.7% year-over-year rise (up from 3.6%) with core at 3.3%, has modestly lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to around 36–44% in fed funds futures. This keeps the next-rate-change decision closely balanced near 50% probability, as persistent above-target inflation and Chair Warsh’s hawkish rhetoric contrast with the Fed’s repeated holds at the 3.50–3.75% range, solid but not overheating labor conditions (4.3% unemployment), and economist consensus favoring steady policy through year-end. Key upcoming releases on August CPI, employment data, and the September Summary of Economic Projections could shift the balance by clarifying whether inflation pressures warrant action or support patience.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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