Recent FOMC decisions have kept the federal funds target range at 3.5–3.75 percent, with the July 2026 meeting producing a 9–3 vote and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike amid persistent inflation above the 2 percent goal, partly tied to energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions. Chair Warsh’s hawkish communications and the June dot plot’s median projection near 3.8 percent for year-end have reinforced trader focus on whether incoming data will prompt one additional tightening before December or allow a hold. Solid GDP growth, resilient job gains, and anchored but elevated inflation expectations have limited downside bets, while cooling labor-market signals and the proximity of the November midterms have capped aggressive hike pricing. With only four months remaining and two more policy meetings before year-end, the close contest between 3.75 percent and 4.0 percent reflects uncertainty over the balance of risks in the final 2026 decisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.75% 35.8%
4.0% 30.9%
4.25% 13.4%
3.5% 7.8%
$6,777,829 Vol.
$6,777,829 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1.0%
1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
<1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
<1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
<1%
3.25%
<1%
3.5%
8%
3.75%
36%
4.0%
31%
4.25%
13%
≥ 4.5%
4%
3.75% 35.8%
4.0% 30.9%
4.25% 13.4%
3.5% 7.8%
$6,777,829 Vol.
$6,777,829 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1.0%
$249,392 Vol.
1%
1.25
$143,802 Vol.
1%
1.5%
$146,989 Vol.
<1%
1.75%
$149,378 Vol.
<1%
2.0%
$264,595 Vol.
<1%
2.25%
$88,603 Vol.
<1%
2.5%
$173,617 Vol.
<1%
2.75%
$61,685 Vol.
1%
3.0%
$489,293 Vol.
<1%
3.25%
$66,745 Vol.
<1%
3.5%
$203,161 Vol.
8%
3.75%
$532,588 Vol.
36%
4.0%
$1,370,074 Vol.
31%
4.25%
$429,359 Vol.
13%
≥ 4.5%
$2,408,548 Vol.
4%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC decisions have kept the federal funds target range at 3.5–3.75 percent, with the July 2026 meeting producing a 9–3 vote and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike amid persistent inflation above the 2 percent goal, partly tied to energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions. Chair Warsh’s hawkish communications and the June dot plot’s median projection near 3.8 percent for year-end have reinforced trader focus on whether incoming data will prompt one additional tightening before December or allow a hold. Solid GDP growth, resilient job gains, and anchored but elevated inflation expectations have limited downside bets, while cooling labor-market signals and the proximity of the November midterms have capped aggressive hike pricing. With only four months remaining and two more policy meetings before year-end, the close contest between 3.75 percent and 4.0 percent reflects uncertainty over the balance of risks in the final 2026 decisions.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$6,777,829End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC decisions have kept the federal funds target range at 3.5–3.75 percent, with the July 2026 meeting producing a 9–3 vote and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike amid persistent inflation above the 2 percent goal, partly tied to energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions. Chair Warsh’s hawkish communications and the June dot plot’s median projection near 3.8 percent for year-end have reinforced trader focus on whether incoming data will prompt one additional tightening before December or allow a hold. Solid GDP growth, resilient job gains, and anchored but elevated inflation expectations have limited downside bets, while cooling labor-market signals and the proximity of the November midterms have capped aggressive hike pricing. With only four months remaining and two more policy meetings before year-end, the close contest between 3.75 percent and 4.0 percent reflects uncertainty over the balance of risks in the final 2026 decisions.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,777,829End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent FOMC decisions have kept the federal funds target range at 3.5–3.75 percent, with the July 2026 meeting producing a 9–3 vote and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike amid persistent inflation above the 2 percent goal, partly tied to energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions. Chair Warsh’s hawkish communications and the June dot plot’s median projection near 3.8 percent for year-end have reinforced trader focus on whether incoming data will prompt one additional tightening before December or allow a hold. Solid GDP growth, resilient job gains, and anchored but elevated inflation expectations have limited downside bets, while cooling labor-market signals and the proximity of the November midterms have capped aggressive hike pricing. With only four months remaining and two more policy meetings before year-end, the close contest between 3.75 percent and 4.0 percent reflects uncertainty over the balance of risks in the final 2026 decisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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