**Persistent above-target inflation and hawkish FOMC signals underpin the 57.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026.** The policy rate has held in the 3.50%-3.75% range since late 2025, with July headline PCE rising to 3.7% year-over-year and core PCE steady at 3.3%, both above the 2% target amid supply pressures from Middle East tensions. The June SEP showed a median end-2026 funds rate projection of 3.8%, with nine participants seeing at least one hike, while recent minutes noted that many officials view tightening as likely if inflation does not moderate. Geopolitical risks and resilient economic data have kept near-term hike odds in futures markets elevated (around 30-60% for select meetings), though most economists in recent polls expect no change through year-end due to gradual labor market cooling and the November midterms. Key upcoming catalysts include Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and August-October inflation and employment releases, which will shape whether trader consensus shifts toward or away from a 2026 tightening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated56% chance
$7,999,374 Vol.
$7,999,374 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
56% chance
$7,999,374 Vol.
$7,999,374 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Persistent above-target inflation and hawkish FOMC signals underpin the 57.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026.** The policy rate has held in the 3.50%-3.75% range since late 2025, with July headline PCE rising to 3.7% year-over-year and core PCE steady at 3.3%, both above the 2% target amid supply pressures from Middle East tensions. The June SEP showed a median end-2026 funds rate projection of 3.8%, with nine participants seeing at least one hike, while recent minutes noted that many officials view tightening as likely if inflation does not moderate.
Geopolitical risks and resilient economic data have kept near-term hike odds in futures markets elevated (around 30-60% for select meetings), though most economists in recent polls expect no change through year-end due to gradual labor market cooling and the November midterms. Key upcoming catalysts include Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and August-October inflation and employment releases, which will shape whether trader consensus shifts toward or away from a 2026 tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$7,999,374End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Persistent above-target inflation and hawkish FOMC signals underpin the 57.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026.** The policy rate has held in the 3.50%-3.75% range since late 2025, with July headline PCE rising to 3.7% year-over-year and core PCE steady at 3.3%, both above the 2% target amid supply pressures from Middle East tensions. The June SEP showed a median end-2026 funds rate projection of 3.8%, with nine participants seeing at least one hike, while recent minutes noted that many officials view tightening as likely if inflation does not moderate.
Geopolitical risks and resilient economic data have kept near-term hike odds in futures markets elevated (around 30-60% for select meetings), though most economists in recent polls expect no change through year-end due to gradual labor market cooling and the November midterms. Key upcoming catalysts include Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and August-October inflation and employment releases, which will shape whether trader consensus shifts toward or away from a 2026 tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,999,374End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Persistent above-target inflation and hawkish FOMC signals underpin the 57.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026.** The policy rate has held in the 3.50%-3.75% range since late 2025, with July headline PCE rising to 3.7% year-over-year and core PCE steady at 3.3%, both above the 2% target amid supply pressures from Middle East tensions. The June SEP showed a median end-2026 funds rate projection of 3.8%, with nine participants seeing at least one hike, while recent minutes noted that many officials view tightening as likely if inflation does not moderate. Geopolitical risks and resilient economic data have kept near-term hike odds in futures markets elevated (around 30-60% for select meetings), though most economists in recent polls expect no change through year-end due to gradual labor market cooling and the November midterms. Key upcoming catalysts include Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and August-October inflation and employment releases, which will shape whether trader consensus shifts toward or away from a 2026 tightening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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