Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair in May 2026, combined with repeated direct communications and public restraint on rate pressure, anchors trader consensus at a 96.8% probability against any firing attempt. Legal precedent from the Supreme Court's Cook ruling reinforces for-cause removal standards and Fed independence, limiting executive leverage over staggered 14-year terms even amid persistent inflation above target and elevated Treasury yields. Warsh's hawkish signals and communication shifts have preserved alignment without overt confrontation, while Trump's focus remains on other board vacancies. Tail risks include sharp deterioration in growth or inflation data that widens policy divergence ahead of midterms, though institutional and political barriers make such scenarios remote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$11,915 Vol.
$11,915 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$11,915 Vol.
$11,915 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair in May 2026, combined with repeated direct communications and public restraint on rate pressure, anchors trader consensus at a 96.8% probability against any firing attempt. Legal precedent from the Supreme Court's Cook ruling reinforces for-cause removal standards and Fed independence, limiting executive leverage over staggered 14-year terms even amid persistent inflation above target and elevated Treasury yields. Warsh's hawkish signals and communication shifts have preserved alignment without overt confrontation, while Trump's focus remains on other board vacancies. Tail risks include sharp deterioration in growth or inflation data that widens policy divergence ahead of midterms, though institutional and political barriers make such scenarios remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$11,915End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair in May 2026, combined with repeated direct communications and public restraint on rate pressure, anchors trader consensus at a 96.8% probability against any firing attempt. Legal precedent from the Supreme Court's Cook ruling reinforces for-cause removal standards and Fed independence, limiting executive leverage over staggered 14-year terms even amid persistent inflation above target and elevated Treasury yields. Warsh's hawkish signals and communication shifts have preserved alignment without overt confrontation, while Trump's focus remains on other board vacancies. Tail risks include sharp deterioration in growth or inflation data that widens policy divergence ahead of midterms, though institutional and political barriers make such scenarios remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$11,915End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair in May 2026, combined with repeated direct communications and public restraint on rate pressure, anchors trader consensus at a 96.8% probability against any firing attempt. Legal precedent from the Supreme Court's Cook ruling reinforces for-cause removal standards and Fed independence, limiting executive leverage over staggered 14-year terms even amid persistent inflation above target and elevated Treasury yields. Warsh's hawkish signals and communication shifts have preserved alignment without overt confrontation, while Trump's focus remains on other board vacancies. Tail risks include sharp deterioration in growth or inflation data that widens policy divergence ahead of midterms, though institutional and political barriers make such scenarios remote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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