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Politics·Fed

What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?

icon for What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?
Politics·Fed

What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?

$54,729 Vol.

Aug 28, 2026
Polymarket

$54,729 Vol.

Polymarket

Bank / Asset 10+ times

$264 Vol.

34%

Task Force 5+ times

$725 Vol.

53%

Stable 5+ times

$584 Vol.

23%

AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times

$1,595 Vol.

66%

Challenge

$3,647 Vol.

69%

Framework

$2,529 Vol.

73%

Prediction / Predictive

$1,153 Vol.

10%

CapEx / Capital Expenditure

$1,018 Vol.

59%

Regime

$881 Vol.

69%

Integrity

$4,900 Vol.

23%

Productivity

$1,779 Vol.

75%

Independent / Independence

$2,957 Vol.

60%

2008 / Financial Crisis

$4,528 Vol.

51%

Good Day

$4,312 Vol.

36%

Good Morning

$1,763 Vol.

69%

Trump

$2,310 Vol.

4%

Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency

$8,616 Vol.

14%

Gold

$7,357 Vol.

10%

Too Late

$2,072 Vol.

24%

Payment System

$26 Vol.

62%

Community

$21 Vol.

49%

Ingenuity

$0 Vol.

46%

-No Qualifying Event-

$1,691 Vol.

1%

Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 28, 2026, 10 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source is the audio/video of the listed event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdfKevin Warsh’s debut Jackson Hole keynote on August 28 arrives amid persistent U.S. inflation above the 2% target, elevated long-term Treasury yields near 19-year highs, and recent softening in retail sales and employment data. As Fed Chair since May, Warsh has curtailed forward guidance to reduce market reliance on explicit signals, drawing criticism for opacity while five internal task forces review communications and policy frameworks. Markets are pricing in uncertainty over whether he will frame inflation as driven by one-off shocks or overheating demand, discuss the Fed’s reaction function, or emphasize structural themes like financial innovation under the symposium’s official agenda. Treasury buybacks of long-dated bonds add another layer, as traders watch for any comments on monetary-fiscal coordination or independence. Recent PCE readings near 3.7% year-over-year keep focus on potential rate-hike signals versus data-dependent restraint.

Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 28, 2026, 10 AM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the audio/video of the listed event.

For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Volume
$54,729
End Date
Aug 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 28, 2026, 10 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source is the audio/video of the listed event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 28, 2026, 10 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source is the audio/video of the listed event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdfKevin Warsh’s debut Jackson Hole keynote on August 28 arrives amid persistent U.S. inflation above the 2% target, elevated long-term Treasury yields near 19-year highs, and recent softening in retail sales and employment data. As Fed Chair since May, Warsh has curtailed forward guidance to reduce market reliance on explicit signals, drawing criticism for opacity while five internal task forces review communications and policy frameworks. Markets are pricing in uncertainty over whether he will frame inflation as driven by one-off shocks or overheating demand, discuss the Fed’s reaction function, or emphasize structural themes like financial innovation under the symposium’s official agenda. Treasury buybacks of long-dated bonds add another layer, as traders watch for any comments on monetary-fiscal coordination or independence. Recent PCE readings near 3.7% year-over-year keep focus on potential rate-hike signals versus data-dependent restraint.

Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 28, 2026, 10 AM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the audio/video of the listed event.

For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Volume
$54,729
End Date
Aug 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 28, 2026, 10 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source is the audio/video of the listed event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Productivity" at 75%, followed by "Framework" at 73%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?" has generated $54.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 18, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?" is "Productivity" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Framework" at 73%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.