The Justice Department’s criminal probe into former Fed Chair Jerome Powell—centered on his 2025 Senate testimony about roughly $700 million in cost overruns on the central bank’s $2.5 billion headquarters renovation—ended in April 2026 without indictment after a federal judge quashed grand-jury subpoenas for lack of evidence and labeled them pretextual. Traders price only low-single-digit implied probability of federal charges by year-end because the inquiry produced no prosecutable facts, judicial rulings reinforced institutional safeguards around monetary-policy independence, and no fresh referrals or probes have surfaced under the Warsh-led FOMC. Persistent inflation above target and upcoming September data releases continue to dominate rate-path pricing rather than legal risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$318,921 Vol.

December 31, 2026
1%
$318,921 Vol.

December 31, 2026
1%
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 28, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The Justice Department’s criminal probe into former Fed Chair Jerome Powell—centered on his 2025 Senate testimony about roughly $700 million in cost overruns on the central bank’s $2.5 billion headquarters renovation—ended in April 2026 without indictment after a federal judge quashed grand-jury subpoenas for lack of evidence and labeled them pretextual. Traders price only low-single-digit implied probability of federal charges by year-end because the inquiry produced no prosecutable facts, judicial rulings reinforced institutional safeguards around monetary-policy independence, and no fresh referrals or probes have surfaced under the Warsh-led FOMC. Persistent inflation above target and upcoming September data releases continue to dominate rate-path pricing rather than legal risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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