Saudi Arabia remains the leading prospective addition to the Abraham Accords, yet Riyadh continues to condition normalization on an irreversible pathway toward Palestinian statehood—a requirement reinforced in recent statements and unchanged by U.S. pressure. On August 26, 2026, the Trump administration submitted a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia to Congress while explicitly tying its implementation to Saudi accession, prompting Riyadh to restate its longstanding position. No other candidates, including Syria or Indonesia, have advanced toward formal joining in the brief window before October 31. Kazakhstan’s November 2025 accession marked the most recent expansion, and subsequent regional developments—including the aftermath of the 2025 Iran conflict and Israel’s October 2026 elections—have not produced breakthroughs sufficient to alter the timeline. These factors underpin trader consensus that a new signatory is unlikely before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated21% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
21% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Saudi Arabia remains the leading prospective addition to the Abraham Accords, yet Riyadh continues to condition normalization on an irreversible pathway toward Palestinian statehood—a requirement reinforced in recent statements and unchanged by U.S. pressure. On August 26, 2026, the Trump administration submitted a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia to Congress while explicitly tying its implementation to Saudi accession, prompting Riyadh to restate its longstanding position. No other candidates, including Syria or Indonesia, have advanced toward formal joining in the brief window before October 31. Kazakhstan’s November 2025 accession marked the most recent expansion, and subsequent regional developments—including the aftermath of the 2025 Iran conflict and Israel’s October 2026 elections—have not produced breakthroughs sufficient to alter the timeline. These factors underpin trader consensus that a new signatory is unlikely before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Saudi Arabia remains the leading prospective addition to the Abraham Accords, yet Riyadh continues to condition normalization on an irreversible pathway toward Palestinian statehood—a requirement reinforced in recent statements and unchanged by U.S. pressure. On August 26, 2026, the Trump administration submitted a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia to Congress while explicitly tying its implementation to Saudi accession, prompting Riyadh to restate its longstanding position. No other candidates, including Syria or Indonesia, have advanced toward formal joining in the brief window before October 31. Kazakhstan’s November 2025 accession marked the most recent expansion, and subsequent regional developments—including the aftermath of the 2025 Iran conflict and Israel’s October 2026 elections—have not produced breakthroughs sufficient to alter the timeline. These factors underpin trader consensus that a new signatory is unlikely before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Saudi Arabia remains the leading prospective addition to the Abraham Accords, yet Riyadh continues to condition normalization on an irreversible pathway toward Palestinian statehood—a requirement reinforced in recent statements and unchanged by U.S. pressure. On August 26, 2026, the Trump administration submitted a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia to Congress while explicitly tying its implementation to Saudi accession, prompting Riyadh to restate its longstanding position. No other candidates, including Syria or Indonesia, have advanced toward formal joining in the brief window before October 31. Kazakhstan’s November 2025 accession marked the most recent expansion, and subsequent regional developments—including the aftermath of the 2025 Iran conflict and Israel’s October 2026 elections—have not produced breakthroughs sufficient to alter the timeline. These factors underpin trader consensus that a new signatory is unlikely before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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