**Traders assign a 78% probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords before 2027 primarily because Saudi Arabia—the most consequential potential signatory—continues to condition normalization on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood, a demand rejected by Israel’s current government.** Recent U.S. efforts, including President Trump’s July 2026 linkage of a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement to Riyadh’s accession, have not produced movement; the deal advanced to Congress in August still carries the explicit condition, while Saudi statements emphasize that prior commitments stand unchanged. Regional developments since 2025, including post-conflict realignments and Saudi-led initiatives such as the R-4 grouping with Turkey, Pakistan, and Egypt, have instead reinforced alternative diplomatic frameworks over further expansion of the Accords. With only months remaining and no other viable candidates positioned for rapid agreement, the short timeline reinforces the prevailing trader consensus reflected in current pricing.