Ukrainian long-range drone strikes targeting the Moscow region remain the dominant driver of repeated temporary flight restrictions at Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo, and Vnukovo airports, as announced by Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) for safety during air-defense operations. Multiple large-scale barrages in June 2026, including one involving nearly 200 drones that closed all four Moscow airports for hours, established a recurring pattern that continued into July with added altitude limits and transit bans, and into August with fresh incidents on August 21 and 26. The August 26 disruptions followed hours after CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s unannounced visit, during which Ukraine had reportedly paused strikes at U.S. request before resuming overnight, downing at least 10 drones. Traders price high implied probabilities for further qualifying suspensions by late August because these security measures have occurred frequently amid the ongoing conflict, with resolution tied to official Russian aviation notices.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMoscow air traffic suspended by...?
Moscow air traffic suspended by...?
$21,728 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
13%
September 15
53%
$21,728 Vol.
August 31
$19,816 Vol.
13%
September 15
$1,912 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russian government or aviation authorities suspend departures and arrivals at all three of the following Moscow airports at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The relevant airports are:
- Sheremetyevo (SVO);
- Domodedovo (DME); and
- Vnukovo (VKO).
A qualifying suspension refers to official flight restrictions suspending both departures and arrivals at all three airports for any amount of time. Such suspensions may be issued as one singular order or separate notices, provided suspensions of arrivals and departures are concurrently in effect at all three airports between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Suspensions described as "temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures" at the relevant airports by Russian authorities will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official communications from the Russian government and Russian aviation authorities, including the Rosaviatsiya federal air transport agency; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ukrainian long-range drone strikes targeting the Moscow region remain the dominant driver of repeated temporary flight restrictions at Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo, and Vnukovo airports, as announced by Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) for safety during air-defense operations. Multiple large-scale barrages in June 2026, including one involving nearly 200 drones that closed all four Moscow airports for hours, established a recurring pattern that continued into July with added altitude limits and transit bans, and into August with fresh incidents on August 21 and 26. The August 26 disruptions followed hours after CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s unannounced visit, during which Ukraine had reportedly paused strikes at U.S. request before resuming overnight, downing at least 10 drones. Traders price high implied probabilities for further qualifying suspensions by late August because these security measures have occurred frequently amid the ongoing conflict, with resolution tied to official Russian aviation notices.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russian government or aviation authorities suspend departures and arrivals at all three of the following Moscow airports at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The relevant airports are:
- Sheremetyevo (SVO);
- Domodedovo (DME); and
- Vnukovo (VKO).
A qualifying suspension refers to official flight restrictions suspending both departures and arrivals at all three airports for any amount of time. Such suspensions may be issued as one singular order or separate notices, provided suspensions of arrivals and departures are concurrently in effect at all three airports between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Suspensions described as "temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures" at the relevant airports by Russian authorities will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official communications from the Russian government and Russian aviation authorities, including the Rosaviatsiya federal air transport agency; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The relevant airports are:
- Sheremetyevo (SVO);
- Domodedovo (DME); and
- Vnukovo (VKO).
A qualifying suspension refers to official flight restrictions suspending both departures and arrivals at all three airports for any amount of time. Such suspensions may be issued as one singular order or separate notices, provided suspensions of arrivals and departures are concurrently in effect at all three airports between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Suspensions described as "temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures" at the relevant airports by Russian authorities will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official communications from the Russian government and Russian aviation authorities, including the Rosaviatsiya federal air transport agency; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
Volume
$21,728End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russian government or aviation authorities suspend departures and arrivals at all three of the following Moscow airports at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The relevant airports are:
- Sheremetyevo (SVO);
- Domodedovo (DME); and
- Vnukovo (VKO).
A qualifying suspension refers to official flight restrictions suspending both departures and arrivals at all three airports for any amount of time. Such suspensions may be issued as one singular order or separate notices, provided suspensions of arrivals and departures are concurrently in effect at all three airports between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Suspensions described as "temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures" at the relevant airports by Russian authorities will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official communications from the Russian government and Russian aviation authorities, including the Rosaviatsiya federal air transport agency; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ukrainian long-range drone strikes targeting the Moscow region remain the dominant driver of repeated temporary flight restrictions at Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo, and Vnukovo airports, as announced by Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) for safety during air-defense operations. Multiple large-scale barrages in June 2026, including one involving nearly 200 drones that closed all four Moscow airports for hours, established a recurring pattern that continued into July with added altitude limits and transit bans, and into August with fresh incidents on August 21 and 26. The August 26 disruptions followed hours after CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s unannounced visit, during which Ukraine had reportedly paused strikes at U.S. request before resuming overnight, downing at least 10 drones. Traders price high implied probabilities for further qualifying suspensions by late August because these security measures have occurred frequently amid the ongoing conflict, with resolution tied to official Russian aviation notices.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russian government or aviation authorities suspend departures and arrivals at all three of the following Moscow airports at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The relevant airports are:
- Sheremetyevo (SVO);
- Domodedovo (DME); and
- Vnukovo (VKO).
A qualifying suspension refers to official flight restrictions suspending both departures and arrivals at all three airports for any amount of time. Such suspensions may be issued as one singular order or separate notices, provided suspensions of arrivals and departures are concurrently in effect at all three airports between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Suspensions described as "temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures" at the relevant airports by Russian authorities will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official communications from the Russian government and Russian aviation authorities, including the Rosaviatsiya federal air transport agency; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The relevant airports are:
- Sheremetyevo (SVO);
- Domodedovo (DME); and
- Vnukovo (VKO).
A qualifying suspension refers to official flight restrictions suspending both departures and arrivals at all three airports for any amount of time. Such suspensions may be issued as one singular order or separate notices, provided suspensions of arrivals and departures are concurrently in effect at all three airports between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Suspensions described as "temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures" at the relevant airports by Russian authorities will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official communications from the Russian government and Russian aviation authorities, including the Rosaviatsiya federal air transport agency; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$21,728End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukrainian long-range drone strikes targeting the Moscow region remain the dominant driver of repeated temporary flight restrictions at Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo, and Vnukovo airports, as announced by Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) for safety during air-defense operations. Multiple large-scale barrages in June 2026, including one involving nearly 200 drones that closed all four Moscow airports for hours, established a recurring pattern that continued into July with added altitude limits and transit bans, and into August with fresh incidents on August 21 and 26. The August 26 disruptions followed hours after CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s unannounced visit, during which Ukraine had reportedly paused strikes at U.S. request before resuming overnight, downing at least 10 drones. Traders price high implied probabilities for further qualifying suspensions by late August because these security measures have occurred frequently amid the ongoing conflict, with resolution tied to official Russian aviation notices.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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