Russia faces sustained manpower shortfalls in the Ukraine conflict, with monthly losses exceeding 30,000 exceeding new contract signings of roughly 27,000, prompting intensified recruitment pressure and nationwide mobilization-readiness exercises in July. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has cited intelligence pointing to a possible 300,000-person compulsory call-up after the September 18–20 State Duma elections, while Russian officials including Dmitry Peskov and UN envoy Vasily Nebenzya have repeatedly dismissed such reports as fabrications timed to destabilize the country. Preparatory drills and aggressive contract enforcement continue, yet formal announcement hinges on official Kremlin decrees rather than unofficial measures. Traders assess low near-term probability given consistent denials and the political calendar.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?
$88,822 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
9%
October 31
21%
December 31
31%
$88,822 Vol.
September 30
$42,003 Vol.
9%
October 31
$13,102 Vol.
21%
December 31
$33,716 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:
(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or
(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.
Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to:
announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization;
announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;
announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or
Mandating a specific number of new call-ups.
The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.
Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria:
authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations;
permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;
extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve;
establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens
The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.Russia faces sustained manpower shortfalls in the Ukraine conflict, with monthly losses exceeding 30,000 exceeding new contract signings of roughly 27,000, prompting intensified recruitment pressure and nationwide mobilization-readiness exercises in July. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has cited intelligence pointing to a possible 300,000-person compulsory call-up after the September 18–20 State Duma elections, while Russian officials including Dmitry Peskov and UN envoy Vasily Nebenzya have repeatedly dismissed such reports as fabrications timed to destabilize the country. Preparatory drills and aggressive contract enforcement continue, yet formal announcement hinges on official Kremlin decrees rather than unofficial measures. Traders assess low near-term probability given consistent denials and the political calendar.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:
(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or
(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.
Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to:
announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization;
announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;
announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or
Mandating a specific number of new call-ups.
The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.
Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria:
authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations;
permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;
extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve;
establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens
The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.
(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or
(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.
Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to:
announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization;
announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;
announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or
Mandating a specific number of new call-ups.
The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.
Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria:
authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations;
permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;
extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve;
establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens
The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$88,822End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:
(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or
(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.
Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to:
announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization;
announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;
announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or
Mandating a specific number of new call-ups.
The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.
Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria:
authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations;
permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;
extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve;
establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens
The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.Russia faces sustained manpower shortfalls in the Ukraine conflict, with monthly losses exceeding 30,000 exceeding new contract signings of roughly 27,000, prompting intensified recruitment pressure and nationwide mobilization-readiness exercises in July. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has cited intelligence pointing to a possible 300,000-person compulsory call-up after the September 18–20 State Duma elections, while Russian officials including Dmitry Peskov and UN envoy Vasily Nebenzya have repeatedly dismissed such reports as fabrications timed to destabilize the country. Preparatory drills and aggressive contract enforcement continue, yet formal announcement hinges on official Kremlin decrees rather than unofficial measures. Traders assess low near-term probability given consistent denials and the political calendar.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either:
(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or
(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.
Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to:
announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization;
announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;
announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or
Mandating a specific number of new call-ups.
The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.
Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria:
authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations;
permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;
extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve;
establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens
The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.
(i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or
(ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify.
Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to:
announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization;
announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization;
announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or
Mandating a specific number of new call-ups.
The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives.
Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria:
authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations;
permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens;
extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve;
establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens
The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.
Volume
$88,822End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia faces sustained manpower shortfalls in the Ukraine conflict, with monthly losses exceeding 30,000 exceeding new contract signings of roughly 27,000, prompting intensified recruitment pressure and nationwide mobilization-readiness exercises in July. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has cited intelligence pointing to a possible 300,000-person compulsory call-up after the September 18–20 State Duma elections, while Russian officials including Dmitry Peskov and UN envoy Vasily Nebenzya have repeatedly dismissed such reports as fabrications timed to destabilize the country. Preparatory drills and aggressive contract enforcement continue, yet formal announcement hinges on official Kremlin decrees rather than unofficial measures. Traders assess low near-term probability given consistent denials and the political calendar.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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