Russian officials have consistently conditioned any direct encounter between President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on prior agreement on core issues such as territorial control, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality commitments. Putin explicitly rejected Zelenskyy’s June 2026 public proposal for face-to-face talks, stating there was “no point” until experts first produced a durable settlement. Earlier U.S.-mediated trilateral contacts in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced limited prisoner exchanges but stalled after February 2026 amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, with no bilateral summit scheduled. Moscow continues to insist on its maximalist objectives while rejecting temporary ceasefires, and the front lines remain largely static. These positions have kept market-implied probabilities for an imminent handshake low, with traders watching for any shift in Russian demands or renewed high-level U.S. pressure that could alter the timeline.