Putin's continued dominance through Russia's security apparatus, including FSB arrests of alleged Ukrainian-linked plotters and a new decree enabling state seizure of underprotected critical infrastructure, underpins trader consensus against a 2026 coup attempt. Economic strains from the Ukraine conflict, including fuel rationing and budget pressures, have coincided with modest dips in approval ratings, yet no coordinated elite challenge or military uprising has materialized since the 2023 Prigozhin episode. Heightened Kremlin surveillance and loyalty mechanisms within the military and security services further reduce the scope for organized action, aligning with the 94.5% implied probability traders assign to "No."
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
$127,551 Vol.
$127,551 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
6% chance
$127,551 Vol.
$127,551 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin's continued dominance through Russia's security apparatus, including FSB arrests of alleged Ukrainian-linked plotters and a new decree enabling state seizure of underprotected critical infrastructure, underpins trader consensus against a 2026 coup attempt. Economic strains from the Ukraine conflict, including fuel rationing and budget pressures, have coincided with modest dips in approval ratings, yet no coordinated elite challenge or military uprising has materialized since the 2023 Prigozhin episode. Heightened Kremlin surveillance and loyalty mechanisms within the military and security services further reduce the scope for organized action, aligning with the 94.5% implied probability traders assign to "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$127,551End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin's continued dominance through Russia's security apparatus, including FSB arrests of alleged Ukrainian-linked plotters and a new decree enabling state seizure of underprotected critical infrastructure, underpins trader consensus against a 2026 coup attempt. Economic strains from the Ukraine conflict, including fuel rationing and budget pressures, have coincided with modest dips in approval ratings, yet no coordinated elite challenge or military uprising has materialized since the 2023 Prigozhin episode. Heightened Kremlin surveillance and loyalty mechanisms within the military and security services further reduce the scope for organized action, aligning with the 94.5% implied probability traders assign to "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$127,551End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Putin's continued dominance through Russia's security apparatus, including FSB arrests of alleged Ukrainian-linked plotters and a new decree enabling state seizure of underprotected critical infrastructure, underpins trader consensus against a 2026 coup attempt. Economic strains from the Ukraine conflict, including fuel rationing and budget pressures, have coincided with modest dips in approval ratings, yet no coordinated elite challenge or military uprising has materialized since the 2023 Prigozhin episode. Heightened Kremlin surveillance and loyalty mechanisms within the military and security services further reduce the scope for organized action, aligning with the 94.5% implied probability traders assign to "No."
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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