Xi Jinping’s sustained dominance over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins the 96% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Extensive anti-corruption purges since 2023 have removed multiple Central Military Commission members and senior generals, replacing them with loyalists while reducing the CMC to minimal size; credible reporting attributes these moves to Xi’s consolidation of authority rather than evidence of organized resistance or armed challenges. Historical precedent, tight party control over the military, and the absence of verifiable elite defections or public fractures reinforce expectations of continuity through the next party congress. Low-probability shifts could still arise from Xi’s health decline, an external crisis exposing internal divisions, or rapid succession maneuvering that unexpectedly fragments loyalty networks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$155,209 Vol.
$155,209 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
4% chance
$155,209 Vol.
$155,209 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained dominance over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins the 96% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Extensive anti-corruption purges since 2023 have removed multiple Central Military Commission members and senior generals, replacing them with loyalists while reducing the CMC to minimal size; credible reporting attributes these moves to Xi’s consolidation of authority rather than evidence of organized resistance or armed challenges. Historical precedent, tight party control over the military, and the absence of verifiable elite defections or public fractures reinforce expectations of continuity through the next party congress. Low-probability shifts could still arise from Xi’s health decline, an external crisis exposing internal divisions, or rapid succession maneuvering that unexpectedly fragments loyalty networks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$155,209End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained dominance over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins the 96% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Extensive anti-corruption purges since 2023 have removed multiple Central Military Commission members and senior generals, replacing them with loyalists while reducing the CMC to minimal size; credible reporting attributes these moves to Xi’s consolidation of authority rather than evidence of organized resistance or armed challenges. Historical precedent, tight party control over the military, and the absence of verifiable elite defections or public fractures reinforce expectations of continuity through the next party congress. Low-probability shifts could still arise from Xi’s health decline, an external crisis exposing internal divisions, or rapid succession maneuvering that unexpectedly fragments loyalty networks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$155,209End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s sustained dominance over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins the 96% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Extensive anti-corruption purges since 2023 have removed multiple Central Military Commission members and senior generals, replacing them with loyalists while reducing the CMC to minimal size; credible reporting attributes these moves to Xi’s consolidation of authority rather than evidence of organized resistance or armed challenges. Historical precedent, tight party control over the military, and the absence of verifiable elite defections or public fractures reinforce expectations of continuity through the next party congress. Low-probability shifts could still arise from Xi’s health decline, an external crisis exposing internal divisions, or rapid succession maneuvering that unexpectedly fragments loyalty networks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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