Traders assign a 92.6% probability to no China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 primarily because Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through routine PLA aircraft sorties, naval transits, coast guard patrols east of Taiwan, and research vessel operations rather than kinetic escalation. Activity levels, including fighter jet detections, reached multi-year lows in the first half of 2026 amid U.S.-China leader summits that produced temporary de-escalations in daily sorties. Taiwan has responded with combat readiness drills, Han Kuang exercises, and record defense budgeting while monitoring median-line crossings and live-fire drills. Ongoing diplomatic engagement, Chinese military command adjustments, and the absence of major new provocations in recent months reinforce the view that full-scale conflict remains unlikely in the brief window remaining.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$3,255,242 Vol.
$3,255,242 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
7% chance
$3,255,242 Vol.
$3,255,242 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 92.6% probability to no China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 primarily because Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through routine PLA aircraft sorties, naval transits, coast guard patrols east of Taiwan, and research vessel operations rather than kinetic escalation. Activity levels, including fighter jet detections, reached multi-year lows in the first half of 2026 amid U.S.-China leader summits that produced temporary de-escalations in daily sorties. Taiwan has responded with combat readiness drills, Han Kuang exercises, and record defense budgeting while monitoring median-line crossings and live-fire drills. Ongoing diplomatic engagement, Chinese military command adjustments, and the absence of major new provocations in recent months reinforce the view that full-scale conflict remains unlikely in the brief window remaining.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$3,255,242End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 92.6% probability to no China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 primarily because Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through routine PLA aircraft sorties, naval transits, coast guard patrols east of Taiwan, and research vessel operations rather than kinetic escalation. Activity levels, including fighter jet detections, reached multi-year lows in the first half of 2026 amid U.S.-China leader summits that produced temporary de-escalations in daily sorties. Taiwan has responded with combat readiness drills, Han Kuang exercises, and record defense budgeting while monitoring median-line crossings and live-fire drills. Ongoing diplomatic engagement, Chinese military command adjustments, and the absence of major new provocations in recent months reinforce the view that full-scale conflict remains unlikely in the brief window remaining.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,255,242End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 92.6% probability to no China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 primarily because Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through routine PLA aircraft sorties, naval transits, coast guard patrols east of Taiwan, and research vessel operations rather than kinetic escalation. Activity levels, including fighter jet detections, reached multi-year lows in the first half of 2026 amid U.S.-China leader summits that produced temporary de-escalations in daily sorties. Taiwan has responded with combat readiness drills, Han Kuang exercises, and record defense budgeting while monitoring median-line crossings and live-fire drills. Ongoing diplomatic engagement, Chinese military command adjustments, and the absence of major new provocations in recent months reinforce the view that full-scale conflict remains unlikely in the brief window remaining.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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