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Politics·Taiwan

Yilan County Magistrate Election Winner

icon for Yilan County Magistrate Election Winner
Politics·Taiwan

Yilan County Magistrate Election Winner

Lin Kuo-chang 56%

Wu Tsung-hsien 35%

Chen Wan-hui 5%

Chang Sheng-te 1.1%

Polymarket
NEW

Lin Kuo-chang 56%

Wu Tsung-hsien 35%

Chen Wan-hui 5%

Chang Sheng-te 1.1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Lin Kuo-chang

Lin Kuo-chang

$2,045 Vol.

56%

icon for Wu Tsung-hsien

Wu Tsung-hsien

$2,303 Vol.

35%

icon for Chen Wan-hui

Chen Wan-hui

$373 Vol.

5%

icon for Chang Sheng-te

Chang Sheng-te

$262 Vol.

1%

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Yilan County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).**Lin Kuo-chang holds a narrow lead in trader pricing for the November 2026 Yilan County magistrate race, reflecting his local roots and the DPP’s traditional advantage in a green-leaning county.** Wu Tsung-hsien, the KMT-TPP alliance nominee, trails amid the fallout from incumbent Lin Tzu-miao’s corruption conviction and suspension, which disrupted KMT succession plans and forced an outsider candidacy. Earlier joint KMT-TPP polling and Formosa surveys showed Lin ahead by small margins in head-to-head and multi-candidate scenarios, consistent with the current 56% versus 35% implied probabilities. Chen Wan-hui and Chang Sheng-te register minimal support after losing the opposition primary and internal KMT contest, respectively. The race stays close because Wu benefits from formal opposition coordination and a clean record relative to the prior administration, yet lacks Yilan ties while Lin, a long-practicing local lawyer recruited by the DPP center, has unified party factions. Candidate registration begins at the end of August, with the vote on November 28; further opposition consolidation, turnout patterns among undecided voters, or late national developments could widen or close the gap before resolution.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Yilan County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$4,983
End Date
Nov 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 8:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Yilan County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Yilan County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).**Lin Kuo-chang holds a narrow lead in trader pricing for the November 2026 Yilan County magistrate race, reflecting his local roots and the DPP’s traditional advantage in a green-leaning county.** Wu Tsung-hsien, the KMT-TPP alliance nominee, trails amid the fallout from incumbent Lin Tzu-miao’s corruption conviction and suspension, which disrupted KMT succession plans and forced an outsider candidacy. Earlier joint KMT-TPP polling and Formosa surveys showed Lin ahead by small margins in head-to-head and multi-candidate scenarios, consistent with the current 56% versus 35% implied probabilities. Chen Wan-hui and Chang Sheng-te register minimal support after losing the opposition primary and internal KMT contest, respectively. The race stays close because Wu benefits from formal opposition coordination and a clean record relative to the prior administration, yet lacks Yilan ties while Lin, a long-practicing local lawyer recruited by the DPP center, has unified party factions. Candidate registration begins at the end of August, with the vote on November 28; further opposition consolidation, turnout patterns among undecided voters, or late national developments could widen or close the gap before resolution.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Yilan County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$4,983
End Date
Nov 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 8:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Yilan County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Yilan County Magistrate Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lin Kuo-chang" at 56%, followed by "Wu Tsung-hsien" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Yilan County Magistrate Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Yilan County Magistrate Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Yilan County Magistrate Election Winner" is "Lin Kuo-chang" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Wu Tsung-hsien" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Yilan County Magistrate Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.