Örebropartiet, a local populist party based in Örebro with representation in the municipal and regional councils since 2018 and 2022, is contesting the September 13, 2026 Riksdag election for the first time. Traders assign a 69% probability to the party failing to secure any seats because national polling averages place “other parties” near 2%, well below both the 4% nationwide threshold and the 12% constituency threshold required in Örebro län to win a mandate without clearing the national barrier. Recent Indikator and Ipsos surveys show no measurable national breakthrough, while commissioned local polls indicating stronger Örebro support remain unverified at scale and are viewed by analysts as insufficient to overcome established parties’ dominance and the absence of historical precedent for the constituency route. The election’s proximity leaves limited time for late shifts in voter behavior.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
40% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Örebropartiet receives at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to Örebropartiet. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If Örebropartiet formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Örebropartiet in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Örebropartiet, a local populist party based in Örebro with representation in the municipal and regional councils since 2018 and 2022, is contesting the September 13, 2026 Riksdag election for the first time. Traders assign a 69% probability to the party failing to secure any seats because national polling averages place “other parties” near 2%, well below both the 4% nationwide threshold and the 12% constituency threshold required in Örebro län to win a mandate without clearing the national barrier. Recent Indikator and Ipsos surveys show no measurable national breakthrough, while commissioned local polls indicating stronger Örebro support remain unverified at scale and are viewed by analysts as insufficient to overcome established parties’ dominance and the absence of historical precedent for the constituency route. The election’s proximity leaves limited time for late shifts in voter behavior.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Örebropartiet receives at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to Örebropartiet. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If Örebropartiet formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Örebropartiet in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Örebropartiet receives at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to Örebropartiet. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If Örebropartiet formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Örebropartiet in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
Volume
$786End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 4:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Örebropartiet receives at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to Örebropartiet. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If Örebropartiet formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Örebropartiet in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Örebropartiet, a local populist party based in Örebro with representation in the municipal and regional councils since 2018 and 2022, is contesting the September 13, 2026 Riksdag election for the first time. Traders assign a 69% probability to the party failing to secure any seats because national polling averages place “other parties” near 2%, well below both the 4% nationwide threshold and the 12% constituency threshold required in Örebro län to win a mandate without clearing the national barrier. Recent Indikator and Ipsos surveys show no measurable national breakthrough, while commissioned local polls indicating stronger Örebro support remain unverified at scale and are viewed by analysts as insufficient to overcome established parties’ dominance and the absence of historical precedent for the constituency route. The election’s proximity leaves limited time for late shifts in voter behavior.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Örebropartiet receives at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to Örebropartiet. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If Örebropartiet formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Örebropartiet in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Örebropartiet receives at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to Örebropartiet. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If Örebropartiet formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Örebropartiet in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$786End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 4:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Örebropartiet, a local populist party based in Örebro with representation in the municipal and regional councils since 2018 and 2022, is contesting the September 13, 2026 Riksdag election for the first time. Traders assign a 69% probability to the party failing to secure any seats because national polling averages place “other parties” near 2%, well below both the 4% nationwide threshold and the 12% constituency threshold required in Örebro län to win a mandate without clearing the national barrier. Recent Indikator and Ipsos surveys show no measurable national breakthrough, while commissioned local polls indicating stronger Örebro support remain unverified at scale and are viewed by analysts as insufficient to overcome established parties’ dominance and the absence of historical precedent for the constituency route. The election’s proximity leaves limited time for late shifts in voter behavior.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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