Darline Graham Nordone’s position as the appointed interim senator and recipient of President Trump’s endorsement, combined with substantial spending by his super PAC on turnout efforts, has shaped trader expectations for a narrow runoff victory over Rep. Ralph Norman in the August 25 special primary. Recent polling showed a competitive field after the initial August 11 primary, with Graham advancing as the top vote-getter but short of a majority, while Norman consolidated support from some Trump allies and emphasized fiscal issues. The compressed timeline, Graham’s limited prior elected experience, and Norman’s established congressional base have kept the race tight in trader assessments, reflected in the overwhelming consensus for a sub-5% margin. Late developments such as Trump’s Myrtle Beach rally and external group ads could still influence final certified totals, though the outcome remains subject to complete vote counts in a low-turnout special election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGraham Nordone <5% 98.0%
Graham Nordone 5–10% 1.8%
Graham Nordone 30%+ <1%
Graham Nordone 25–30% <1%
$253,477 Vol.
$253,477 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
Graham Nordone 30%+
<1%
Graham Nordone 25–30%
<1%
Graham Nordone 20–25%
<1%
Graham Nordone 15–20%
<1%
Graham Nordone 10–15%
<1%
Graham Nordone 5–10%
2%
Graham Nordone <5%
98%
Norman <5%
<1%
Norman 5–10%
<1%
Norman 10–15%
<1%
Norman 15–20%
<1%
Norman 20%+
<1%
Graham Nordone <5% 98.0%
Graham Nordone 5–10% 1.8%
Graham Nordone 30%+ <1%
Graham Nordone 25–30% <1%
$253,477 Vol.
$253,477 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
Graham Nordone 30%+
$4,792 Vol.
<1%
Graham Nordone 25–30%
$717 Vol.
<1%
Graham Nordone 20–25%
$28,449 Vol.
<1%
Graham Nordone 15–20%
$25,501 Vol.
<1%
Graham Nordone 10–15%
$7,652 Vol.
<1%
Graham Nordone 5–10%
$90,308 Vol.
2%
Graham Nordone <5%
$51,111 Vol.
98%
Norman <5%
$10,438 Vol.
<1%
Norman 5–10%
$11,897 Vol.
<1%
Norman 10–15%
$10,119 Vol.
<1%
Norman 15–20%
$11,118 Vol.
<1%
Norman 20%+
$1,374 Vol.
<1%
The special primary runoff election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the runoff of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Darline Graham Nordone’s position as the appointed interim senator and recipient of President Trump’s endorsement, combined with substantial spending by his super PAC on turnout efforts, has shaped trader expectations for a narrow runoff victory over Rep. Ralph Norman in the August 25 special primary. Recent polling showed a competitive field after the initial August 11 primary, with Graham advancing as the top vote-getter but short of a majority, while Norman consolidated support from some Trump allies and emphasized fiscal issues. The compressed timeline, Graham’s limited prior elected experience, and Norman’s established congressional base have kept the race tight in trader assessments, reflected in the overwhelming consensus for a sub-5% margin. Late developments such as Trump’s Myrtle Beach rally and external group ads could still influence final certified totals, though the outcome remains subject to complete vote counts in a low-turnout special election.
The special primary runoff election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the runoff of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the runoff of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$253,477End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The special primary runoff election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the runoff of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Darline Graham Nordone’s position as the appointed interim senator and recipient of President Trump’s endorsement, combined with substantial spending by his super PAC on turnout efforts, has shaped trader expectations for a narrow runoff victory over Rep. Ralph Norman in the August 25 special primary. Recent polling showed a competitive field after the initial August 11 primary, with Graham advancing as the top vote-getter but short of a majority, while Norman consolidated support from some Trump allies and emphasized fiscal issues. The compressed timeline, Graham’s limited prior elected experience, and Norman’s established congressional base have kept the race tight in trader assessments, reflected in the overwhelming consensus for a sub-5% margin. Late developments such as Trump’s Myrtle Beach rally and external group ads could still influence final certified totals, though the outcome remains subject to complete vote counts in a low-turnout special election.
The special primary runoff election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the runoff of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the runoff of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$253,477End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Darline Graham Nordone’s position as the appointed interim senator and recipient of President Trump’s endorsement, combined with substantial spending by his super PAC on turnout efforts, has shaped trader expectations for a narrow runoff victory over Rep. Ralph Norman in the August 25 special primary. Recent polling showed a competitive field after the initial August 11 primary, with Graham advancing as the top vote-getter but short of a majority, while Norman consolidated support from some Trump allies and emphasized fiscal issues. The compressed timeline, Graham’s limited prior elected experience, and Norman’s established congressional base have kept the race tight in trader assessments, reflected in the overwhelming consensus for a sub-5% margin. Late developments such as Trump’s Myrtle Beach rally and external group ads could still influence final certified totals, though the outcome remains subject to complete vote counts in a low-turnout special election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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