**Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress and unified party support for the president have kept removal efforts contained despite periodic Democratic calls for impeachment or invocation of the 25th Amendment.** Trump took office for his second term on January 20, 2025, and as of late August 2026 he remains in office with no successful congressional action to remove him. Past attempts, including resolutions tied to the 2026 Iran conflict and related statements, advanced only in the House minority and lacked the bipartisan or Senate supermajority support needed for conviction and removal. **Structural barriers explain the 93.5% trader consensus on “No.”** Impeachment requires a House majority (currently Republican-controlled) followed by a two-thirds Senate vote, while 25th Amendment removal needs the vice president and cabinet majority—both unlikely given current alignments. No verified developments in the past month point to health, legal, or procedural changes that would alter this near-term outlook before January 2027. The November 2026 midterms could shift House control afterward, but any subsequent process would extend well beyond the market’s resolution window. Traders price these institutional and political realities as making early exit highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$11,159,296 Vol.
$11,159,296 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
7% chance
$11,159,296 Vol.
$11,159,296 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress and unified party support for the president have kept removal efforts contained despite periodic Democratic calls for impeachment or invocation of the 25th Amendment.** Trump took office for his second term on January 20, 2025, and as of late August 2026 he remains in office with no successful congressional action to remove him. Past attempts, including resolutions tied to the 2026 Iran conflict and related statements, advanced only in the House minority and lacked the bipartisan or Senate supermajority support needed for conviction and removal.
**Structural barriers explain the 93.5% trader consensus on “No.”** Impeachment requires a House majority (currently Republican-controlled) followed by a two-thirds Senate vote, while 25th Amendment removal needs the vice president and cabinet majority—both unlikely given current alignments. No verified developments in the past month point to health, legal, or procedural changes that would alter this near-term outlook before January 2027. The November 2026 midterms could shift House control afterward, but any subsequent process would extend well beyond the market’s resolution window. Traders price these institutional and political realities as making early exit highly improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$11,159,296End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress and unified party support for the president have kept removal efforts contained despite periodic Democratic calls for impeachment or invocation of the 25th Amendment.** Trump took office for his second term on January 20, 2025, and as of late August 2026 he remains in office with no successful congressional action to remove him. Past attempts, including resolutions tied to the 2026 Iran conflict and related statements, advanced only in the House minority and lacked the bipartisan or Senate supermajority support needed for conviction and removal.
**Structural barriers explain the 93.5% trader consensus on “No.”** Impeachment requires a House majority (currently Republican-controlled) followed by a two-thirds Senate vote, while 25th Amendment removal needs the vice president and cabinet majority—both unlikely given current alignments. No verified developments in the past month point to health, legal, or procedural changes that would alter this near-term outlook before January 2027. The November 2026 midterms could shift House control afterward, but any subsequent process would extend well beyond the market’s resolution window. Traders price these institutional and political realities as making early exit highly improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,159,296End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress and unified party support for the president have kept removal efforts contained despite periodic Democratic calls for impeachment or invocation of the 25th Amendment.** Trump took office for his second term on January 20, 2025, and as of late August 2026 he remains in office with no successful congressional action to remove him. Past attempts, including resolutions tied to the 2026 Iran conflict and related statements, advanced only in the House minority and lacked the bipartisan or Senate supermajority support needed for conviction and removal. **Structural barriers explain the 93.5% trader consensus on “No.”** Impeachment requires a House majority (currently Republican-controlled) followed by a two-thirds Senate vote, while 25th Amendment removal needs the vice president and cabinet majority—both unlikely given current alignments. No verified developments in the past month point to health, legal, or procedural changes that would alter this near-term outlook before January 2027. The November 2026 midterms could shift House control afterward, but any subsequent process would extend well beyond the market’s resolution window. Traders price these institutional and political realities as making early exit highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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