**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and Iranian enforcement actions continue to severely restrict commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the 68.5% probability that volumes and safety conditions will not return to pre-crisis norms by December 31, 2026.** The waterway has seen traffic drop from roughly 130 daily transits before the conflict to fewer than 20 per day in recent weeks, with most activity limited to dark (AIS-off) movements, shadow-fleet operations, or IRGC-controlled northern corridors. A mid-June memorandum of understanding produced a temporary rebound above 50–60 transits on peak days, but renewed strikes, seizures, and enforcement starting in early July collapsed that recovery. As of late August 2026, IRGC statements assert control and condition reopening on U.S. sanctions relief and naval adjustments, while projectile incidents, mine risks, and 40-fold war-risk premiums persist. Major carriers have rerouted or halted use of the strait, leaving hundreds of vessels and thousands of crew stranded. Recent sanctions escalations and Iranian blacklists of non-compliant vessels further harden positions, with no diplomatic breakthrough evident in the four-month window to year-end. These sustained barriers—kinetic threats, regulatory controls, insurance costs, and sanctions—underpin trader consensus against full normalization of safe, high-volume commercial traffic by the resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated32% chance
$9,907,259 Vol.
$9,907,259 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
32% chance
$9,907,259 Vol.
$9,907,259 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and Iranian enforcement actions continue to severely restrict commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the 68.5% probability that volumes and safety conditions will not return to pre-crisis norms by December 31, 2026.**
The waterway has seen traffic drop from roughly 130 daily transits before the conflict to fewer than 20 per day in recent weeks, with most activity limited to dark (AIS-off) movements, shadow-fleet operations, or IRGC-controlled northern corridors. A mid-June memorandum of understanding produced a temporary rebound above 50–60 transits on peak days, but renewed strikes, seizures, and enforcement starting in early July collapsed that recovery. As of late August 2026, IRGC statements assert control and condition reopening on U.S. sanctions relief and naval adjustments, while projectile incidents, mine risks, and 40-fold war-risk premiums persist.
Major carriers have rerouted or halted use of the strait, leaving hundreds of vessels and thousands of crew stranded. Recent sanctions escalations and Iranian blacklists of non-compliant vessels further harden positions, with no diplomatic breakthrough evident in the four-month window to year-end. These sustained barriers—kinetic threats, regulatory controls, insurance costs, and sanctions—underpin trader consensus against full normalization of safe, high-volume commercial traffic by the resolution date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
Volume
$9,907,259End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and Iranian enforcement actions continue to severely restrict commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the 68.5% probability that volumes and safety conditions will not return to pre-crisis norms by December 31, 2026.**
The waterway has seen traffic drop from roughly 130 daily transits before the conflict to fewer than 20 per day in recent weeks, with most activity limited to dark (AIS-off) movements, shadow-fleet operations, or IRGC-controlled northern corridors. A mid-June memorandum of understanding produced a temporary rebound above 50–60 transits on peak days, but renewed strikes, seizures, and enforcement starting in early July collapsed that recovery. As of late August 2026, IRGC statements assert control and condition reopening on U.S. sanctions relief and naval adjustments, while projectile incidents, mine risks, and 40-fold war-risk premiums persist.
Major carriers have rerouted or halted use of the strait, leaving hundreds of vessels and thousands of crew stranded. Recent sanctions escalations and Iranian blacklists of non-compliant vessels further harden positions, with no diplomatic breakthrough evident in the four-month window to year-end. These sustained barriers—kinetic threats, regulatory controls, insurance costs, and sanctions—underpin trader consensus against full normalization of safe, high-volume commercial traffic by the resolution date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$9,907,259End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and Iranian enforcement actions continue to severely restrict commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the 68.5% probability that volumes and safety conditions will not return to pre-crisis norms by December 31, 2026.** The waterway has seen traffic drop from roughly 130 daily transits before the conflict to fewer than 20 per day in recent weeks, with most activity limited to dark (AIS-off) movements, shadow-fleet operations, or IRGC-controlled northern corridors. A mid-June memorandum of understanding produced a temporary rebound above 50–60 transits on peak days, but renewed strikes, seizures, and enforcement starting in early July collapsed that recovery. As of late August 2026, IRGC statements assert control and condition reopening on U.S. sanctions relief and naval adjustments, while projectile incidents, mine risks, and 40-fold war-risk premiums persist. Major carriers have rerouted or halted use of the strait, leaving hundreds of vessels and thousands of crew stranded. Recent sanctions escalations and Iranian blacklists of non-compliant vessels further harden positions, with no diplomatic breakthrough evident in the four-month window to year-end. These sustained barriers—kinetic threats, regulatory controls, insurance costs, and sanctions—underpin trader consensus against full normalization of safe, high-volume commercial traffic by the resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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