Iran’s ongoing efforts to assert control over Strait of Hormuz transit routes, including blacklisting 45 specific tankers on August 24 and threatening fines, detention, or cargo confiscation for violations, continue to drive expectations of further direct action against commercial shipping. Recent confirmed incidents include Iranian boarding and seizure of the chemical tanker AMARA on August 17 near Qeshm Island and projectile strikes disabling vessels such as the bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY (with one crew fatality) and the Aframax tanker METRO VENETIAN on August 24. These follow repeated IRGC drone and projectile attacks throughout summer 2026 amid the broader conflict, expired transit memoranda, and U.S. sanctions responses. Heightened enforcement rhetoric and persistent maritime incidents sustain trader focus on near-term successful kinetic strikes or seizures by Iranian forces.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$187,954 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
August 17
50%
August 18
43%
August 24
47%
August 25
34%
August 26
30%
August 27
52%
August 28
26%
August 29
22%
August 30
19%
August 31
21%
$187,954 Vol.
August 17
$6,001 Vol.
50%
August 18
$2,542 Vol.
43%
August 24
$10,632 Vol.
47%
August 25
$982 Vol.
34%
August 26
$1,298 Vol.
30%
August 27
$562 Vol.
52%
August 28
$1,528 Vol.
26%
August 29
$2,813 Vol.
22%
August 30
$834 Vol.
19%
August 31
$3,739 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s ongoing efforts to assert control over Strait of Hormuz transit routes, including blacklisting 45 specific tankers on August 24 and threatening fines, detention, or cargo confiscation for violations, continue to drive expectations of further direct action against commercial shipping. Recent confirmed incidents include Iranian boarding and seizure of the chemical tanker AMARA on August 17 near Qeshm Island and projectile strikes disabling vessels such as the bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY (with one crew fatality) and the Aframax tanker METRO VENETIAN on August 24. These follow repeated IRGC drone and projectile attacks throughout summer 2026 amid the broader conflict, expired transit memoranda, and U.S. sanctions responses. Heightened enforcement rhetoric and persistent maritime incidents sustain trader focus on near-term successful kinetic strikes or seizures by Iranian forces.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Volume
$187,954End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s ongoing efforts to assert control over Strait of Hormuz transit routes, including blacklisting 45 specific tankers on August 24 and threatening fines, detention, or cargo confiscation for violations, continue to drive expectations of further direct action against commercial shipping. Recent confirmed incidents include Iranian boarding and seizure of the chemical tanker AMARA on August 17 near Qeshm Island and projectile strikes disabling vessels such as the bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY (with one crew fatality) and the Aframax tanker METRO VENETIAN on August 24. These follow repeated IRGC drone and projectile attacks throughout summer 2026 amid the broader conflict, expired transit memoranda, and U.S. sanctions responses. Heightened enforcement rhetoric and persistent maritime incidents sustain trader focus on near-term successful kinetic strikes or seizures by Iranian forces.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$187,954End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s ongoing efforts to assert control over Strait of Hormuz transit routes, including blacklisting 45 specific tankers on August 24 and threatening fines, detention, or cargo confiscation for violations, continue to drive expectations of further direct action against commercial shipping. Recent confirmed incidents include Iranian boarding and seizure of the chemical tanker AMARA on August 17 near Qeshm Island and projectile strikes disabling vessels such as the bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY (with one crew fatality) and the Aframax tanker METRO VENETIAN on August 24. These follow repeated IRGC drone and projectile attacks throughout summer 2026 amid the broader conflict, expired transit memoranda, and U.S. sanctions responses. Heightened enforcement rhetoric and persistent maritime incidents sustain trader focus on near-term successful kinetic strikes or seizures by Iranian forces.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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