Recent Houthi threats and targeted strikes on commercial vessels, particularly Saudi-linked tankers, have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting or dark transits through Bab el-Mandeb, keeping total weekly volumes suppressed below pre-disruption baselines even as some container carriers cautiously test Suez resumption. With 180-199 and 200-219 each commanding roughly one-third of market-implied probability, trader positioning reflects uncertainty over the precise mix of laden versus ballast traffic, sanctioned movements, and AIS-off activity that MarineTraffic and Kpler data show can swing daily counts by 20-30 percent. Key swing factors include any fresh attacks or de-escalation signals ahead of week-end reporting, alongside insurance cost trajectories that directly influence operator routing economics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
180-199 35%
200-219 33%
220+ 18%
160-179 10%
$15,432 Vol.
$15,432 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
8%
160-179
10%
180-199
35%
200-219
33%
220+
18%
180-199 35%
200-219 33%
220+ 18%
160-179 10%
$15,432 Vol.
$15,432 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
$124 Vol.
8%
160-179
$105 Vol.
10%
180-199
$332 Vol.
35%
200-219
$13,752 Vol.
33%
220+
$1,120 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and targeted strikes on commercial vessels, particularly Saudi-linked tankers, have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting or dark transits through Bab el-Mandeb, keeping total weekly volumes suppressed below pre-disruption baselines even as some container carriers cautiously test Suez resumption. With 180-199 and 200-219 each commanding roughly one-third of market-implied probability, trader positioning reflects uncertainty over the precise mix of laden versus ballast traffic, sanctioned movements, and AIS-off activity that MarineTraffic and Kpler data show can swing daily counts by 20-30 percent. Key swing factors include any fresh attacks or de-escalation signals ahead of week-end reporting, alongside insurance cost trajectories that directly influence operator routing economics.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$15,432End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and targeted strikes on commercial vessels, particularly Saudi-linked tankers, have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting or dark transits through Bab el-Mandeb, keeping total weekly volumes suppressed below pre-disruption baselines even as some container carriers cautiously test Suez resumption. With 180-199 and 200-219 each commanding roughly one-third of market-implied probability, trader positioning reflects uncertainty over the precise mix of laden versus ballast traffic, sanctioned movements, and AIS-off activity that MarineTraffic and Kpler data show can swing daily counts by 20-30 percent. Key swing factors include any fresh attacks or de-escalation signals ahead of week-end reporting, alongside insurance cost trajectories that directly influence operator routing economics.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$15,432End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats and targeted strikes on commercial vessels, particularly Saudi-linked tankers, have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting or dark transits through Bab el-Mandeb, keeping total weekly volumes suppressed below pre-disruption baselines even as some container carriers cautiously test Suez resumption. With 180-199 and 200-219 each commanding roughly one-third of market-implied probability, trader positioning reflects uncertainty over the precise mix of laden versus ballast traffic, sanctioned movements, and AIS-off activity that MarineTraffic and Kpler data show can swing daily counts by 20-30 percent. Key swing factors include any fresh attacks or de-escalation signals ahead of week-end reporting, alongside insurance cost trajectories that directly influence operator routing economics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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