The U.S.-Iran conflict that began with airstrikes in February 2026 has featured repeated rounds of U.S. and Israeli air operations, naval pressure in the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions escalation, yet has avoided large-scale ground commitments. Multiple cease-fire attempts and a June 2026 memorandum of understanding produced only temporary lulls, after which limited strikes resumed without evidence of preparations for territorial control operations. Military analysts and former officials consistently describe a full invasion as logistically prohibitive and politically costly, citing Iran’s ground forces, terrain challenges, and domestic U.S. opposition to prolonged occupation. Traders therefore assign an 84.5% probability to “No,” reflecting the observed pattern of air and economic pressure alongside diplomatic channels rather than boots-on-the-ground escalation before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.