Russia's maximalist demands for territorial concessions in Donbas, security guarantees excluding NATO pathways for Ukraine, and rejection of any frontline freeze have blocked progress since trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva stalled in February 2026 amid the Iran conflict. Kremlin statements through August 2026, including from Foreign Minister Lavrov, emphasize continued military operations until core objectives are met, with no immediate resumption of formal negotiations anticipated despite Ukrainian proposals for ceasefires or buffer zones. Prisoner exchanges and brief holiday pauses represent the only limited cooperation. The two-month window to October 31 leaves little scope for the complex diplomatic sequencing required for a signed peace deal, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% No probability. A sudden high-level US-brokered breakthrough or major battlefield reversal could still shift timelines, though both remain distant under current conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia's maximalist demands for territorial concessions in Donbas, security guarantees excluding NATO pathways for Ukraine, and rejection of any frontline freeze have blocked progress since trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva stalled in February 2026 amid the Iran conflict. Kremlin statements through August 2026, including from Foreign Minister Lavrov, emphasize continued military operations until core objectives are met, with no immediate resumption of formal negotiations anticipated despite Ukrainian proposals for ceasefires or buffer zones. Prisoner exchanges and brief holiday pauses represent the only limited cooperation. The two-month window to October 31 leaves little scope for the complex diplomatic sequencing required for a signed peace deal, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% No probability. A sudden high-level US-brokered breakthrough or major battlefield reversal could still shift timelines, though both remain distant under current conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$44End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia's maximalist demands for territorial concessions in Donbas, security guarantees excluding NATO pathways for Ukraine, and rejection of any frontline freeze have blocked progress since trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva stalled in February 2026 amid the Iran conflict. Kremlin statements through August 2026, including from Foreign Minister Lavrov, emphasize continued military operations until core objectives are met, with no immediate resumption of formal negotiations anticipated despite Ukrainian proposals for ceasefires or buffer zones. Prisoner exchanges and brief holiday pauses represent the only limited cooperation. The two-month window to October 31 leaves little scope for the complex diplomatic sequencing required for a signed peace deal, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% No probability. A sudden high-level US-brokered breakthrough or major battlefield reversal could still shift timelines, though both remain distant under current conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$44End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's maximalist demands for territorial concessions in Donbas, security guarantees excluding NATO pathways for Ukraine, and rejection of any frontline freeze have blocked progress since trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva stalled in February 2026 amid the Iran conflict. Kremlin statements through August 2026, including from Foreign Minister Lavrov, emphasize continued military operations until core objectives are met, with no immediate resumption of formal negotiations anticipated despite Ukrainian proposals for ceasefires or buffer zones. Prisoner exchanges and brief holiday pauses represent the only limited cooperation. The two-month window to October 31 leaves little scope for the complex diplomatic sequencing required for a signed peace deal, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% No probability. A sudden high-level US-brokered breakthrough or major battlefield reversal could still shift timelines, though both remain distant under current conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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