**Traders assign an 87.5% probability that Ukraine will not sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027 because formal trilateral negotiations have remained stalled since February 2026.** Early-year talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced limited prisoner exchanges but no agreement on core issues such as territorial control in Donetsk or the scope and duration of security guarantees. As of late August 2026, Russian officials have signaled preparations to intensify missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, citing the absence of progress and insistence on maximalist conditions including Ukrainian neutrality and recognition of annexed regions. The battlefield remains a grinding stalemate with minimal territorial shifts, while recent proposals to freeze the conflict have been rejected. These developments reinforce trader consensus that a binding agreement is unlikely in the narrow remaining window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated13% chance
$2,610,357 Vol.
$2,610,357 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
13% chance
$2,610,357 Vol.
$2,610,357 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Traders assign an 87.5% probability that Ukraine will not sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027 because formal trilateral negotiations have remained stalled since February 2026.** Early-year talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced limited prisoner exchanges but no agreement on core issues such as territorial control in Donetsk or the scope and duration of security guarantees. As of late August 2026, Russian officials have signaled preparations to intensify missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, citing the absence of progress and insistence on maximalist conditions including Ukrainian neutrality and recognition of annexed regions. The battlefield remains a grinding stalemate with minimal territorial shifts, while recent proposals to freeze the conflict have been rejected. These developments reinforce trader consensus that a binding agreement is unlikely in the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,610,357End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Traders assign an 87.5% probability that Ukraine will not sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027 because formal trilateral negotiations have remained stalled since February 2026.** Early-year talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced limited prisoner exchanges but no agreement on core issues such as territorial control in Donetsk or the scope and duration of security guarantees. As of late August 2026, Russian officials have signaled preparations to intensify missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, citing the absence of progress and insistence on maximalist conditions including Ukrainian neutrality and recognition of annexed regions. The battlefield remains a grinding stalemate with minimal territorial shifts, while recent proposals to freeze the conflict have been rejected. These developments reinforce trader consensus that a binding agreement is unlikely in the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,610,357End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 87.5% probability that Ukraine will not sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027 because formal trilateral negotiations have remained stalled since February 2026.** Early-year talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced limited prisoner exchanges but no agreement on core issues such as territorial control in Donetsk or the scope and duration of security guarantees. As of late August 2026, Russian officials have signaled preparations to intensify missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, citing the absence of progress and insistence on maximalist conditions including Ukrainian neutrality and recognition of annexed regions. The battlefield remains a grinding stalemate with minimal territorial shifts, while recent proposals to freeze the conflict have been rejected. These developments reinforce trader consensus that a binding agreement is unlikely in the narrow remaining window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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