**Traders assign an 85.5% probability to "No" because sustained U.S. diplomatic efforts have produced only bilateral contacts and calls among the three leaders, with no trilateral meeting materializing and persistent barriers to one before the end of 2026.** President Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in facilitating direct Putin-Zelensky talks—potentially followed by a three-way format—after his August 2025 Alaska summit with Putin and subsequent White House and NATO engagements with Zelenskyy. However, Russian officials have consistently stated that no such meeting is planned until core preconditions are met, including agreement on territorial and security issues. Separate phone calls and side meetings in 2026 have advanced mediation without yielding a joint appearance or breakthrough ceasefire framework. With roughly four months remaining before 2027 and positions on key issues still divergent, the narrow window for the required diplomatic alignment makes the outcome unlikely under current conditions.