Ongoing military advances by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, combined with Moscow's insistence on full Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk and other maximalist territorial conditions, have kept formal negotiations on a deep pause as of late August 2026. The last trilateral talks involving U.S. mediators occurred in February, with subsequent U.S.-led efforts stalled amid competing priorities and irreconcilable demands on security guarantees, ceasefires, and land. Ukrainian officials have signaled possible technical discussions in September but described any swift comprehensive agreement as unrealistic, with fighting expected to continue through winter. Trader consensus reflects this absence of active diplomacy or concessions capable of producing a signed deal within the next 48 hours. A sudden high-level announcement or dramatic shift in positions could theoretically alter the outcome before the deadline, though recent statements indicate little prospect of such movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$320,804 Vol.
$320,804 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1% chance
$320,804 Vol.
$320,804 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing military advances by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, combined with Moscow's insistence on full Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk and other maximalist territorial conditions, have kept formal negotiations on a deep pause as of late August 2026. The last trilateral talks involving U.S. mediators occurred in February, with subsequent U.S.-led efforts stalled amid competing priorities and irreconcilable demands on security guarantees, ceasefires, and land. Ukrainian officials have signaled possible technical discussions in September but described any swift comprehensive agreement as unrealistic, with fighting expected to continue through winter. Trader consensus reflects this absence of active diplomacy or concessions capable of producing a signed deal within the next 48 hours. A sudden high-level announcement or dramatic shift in positions could theoretically alter the outcome before the deadline, though recent statements indicate little prospect of such movement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$320,804End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing military advances by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, combined with Moscow's insistence on full Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk and other maximalist territorial conditions, have kept formal negotiations on a deep pause as of late August 2026. The last trilateral talks involving U.S. mediators occurred in February, with subsequent U.S.-led efforts stalled amid competing priorities and irreconcilable demands on security guarantees, ceasefires, and land. Ukrainian officials have signaled possible technical discussions in September but described any swift comprehensive agreement as unrealistic, with fighting expected to continue through winter. Trader consensus reflects this absence of active diplomacy or concessions capable of producing a signed deal within the next 48 hours. A sudden high-level announcement or dramatic shift in positions could theoretically alter the outcome before the deadline, though recent statements indicate little prospect of such movement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$320,804End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military advances by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, combined with Moscow's insistence on full Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk and other maximalist territorial conditions, have kept formal negotiations on a deep pause as of late August 2026. The last trilateral talks involving U.S. mediators occurred in February, with subsequent U.S.-led efforts stalled amid competing priorities and irreconcilable demands on security guarantees, ceasefires, and land. Ukrainian officials have signaled possible technical discussions in September but described any swift comprehensive agreement as unrealistic, with fighting expected to continue through winter. Trader consensus reflects this absence of active diplomacy or concessions capable of producing a signed deal within the next 48 hours. A sudden high-level announcement or dramatic shift in positions could theoretically alter the outcome before the deadline, though recent statements indicate little prospect of such movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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