**Recent polling and coalition dynamics show limited prospects for a Likud-RZP joint list.** As of late August 2026, with Israeli legislative elections scheduled for October 27, repeated surveys indicate the Religious Zionist Party (RZP), led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, risks falling below or barely clearing the 3.25% electoral threshold. This stems largely from vote fragmentation on the right, including Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party drawing support from overlapping religious-nationalist and settler constituencies. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly urged far-right leaders Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit) and Smotrich to form a joint list to consolidate the right-wing bloc and avoid wasted votes, citing their successful technical merger in 2022. However, Ben-Gvir has rejected any merger with RZP as “final and complete.” Smotrich has instead pursued separate list finalization for RZP—releasing its primary slate in July—and exploratory talks with other figures such as former Likud MK Moshe Feiglin, rather than integration with Likud. Likud has conducted its own primaries, selected a national list, and focused on internal reservations for Netanyahu allies, without announcements or negotiations signaling a combined slate with RZP. Historical patterns show RZP previously allied with Otzma Yehudit or other small parties, not directly with Likud, and current polling-driven pressures reinforce separate strategies to maximize bloc representation. These factors align with trader consensus that a Likud-RZP joint list is unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated13% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
13% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Recent polling and coalition dynamics show limited prospects for a Likud-RZP joint list.** As of late August 2026, with Israeli legislative elections scheduled for October 27, repeated surveys indicate the Religious Zionist Party (RZP), led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, risks falling below or barely clearing the 3.25% electoral threshold. This stems largely from vote fragmentation on the right, including Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party drawing support from overlapping religious-nationalist and settler constituencies.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly urged far-right leaders Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit) and Smotrich to form a joint list to consolidate the right-wing bloc and avoid wasted votes, citing their successful technical merger in 2022. However, Ben-Gvir has rejected any merger with RZP as “final and complete.” Smotrich has instead pursued separate list finalization for RZP—releasing its primary slate in July—and exploratory talks with other figures such as former Likud MK Moshe Feiglin, rather than integration with Likud.
Likud has conducted its own primaries, selected a national list, and focused on internal reservations for Netanyahu allies, without announcements or negotiations signaling a combined slate with RZP. Historical patterns show RZP previously allied with Otzma Yehudit or other small parties, not directly with Likud, and current polling-driven pressures reinforce separate strategies to maximize bloc representation. These factors align with trader consensus that a Likud-RZP joint list is unlikely.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Recent polling and coalition dynamics show limited prospects for a Likud-RZP joint list.** As of late August 2026, with Israeli legislative elections scheduled for October 27, repeated surveys indicate the Religious Zionist Party (RZP), led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, risks falling below or barely clearing the 3.25% electoral threshold. This stems largely from vote fragmentation on the right, including Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party drawing support from overlapping religious-nationalist and settler constituencies.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly urged far-right leaders Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit) and Smotrich to form a joint list to consolidate the right-wing bloc and avoid wasted votes, citing their successful technical merger in 2022. However, Ben-Gvir has rejected any merger with RZP as “final and complete.” Smotrich has instead pursued separate list finalization for RZP—releasing its primary slate in July—and exploratory talks with other figures such as former Likud MK Moshe Feiglin, rather than integration with Likud.
Likud has conducted its own primaries, selected a national list, and focused on internal reservations for Netanyahu allies, without announcements or negotiations signaling a combined slate with RZP. Historical patterns show RZP previously allied with Otzma Yehudit or other small parties, not directly with Likud, and current polling-driven pressures reinforce separate strategies to maximize bloc representation. These factors align with trader consensus that a Likud-RZP joint list is unlikely.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Volume
$20End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling and coalition dynamics show limited prospects for a Likud-RZP joint list.** As of late August 2026, with Israeli legislative elections scheduled for October 27, repeated surveys indicate the Religious Zionist Party (RZP), led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, risks falling below or barely clearing the 3.25% electoral threshold. This stems largely from vote fragmentation on the right, including Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party drawing support from overlapping religious-nationalist and settler constituencies. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly urged far-right leaders Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit) and Smotrich to form a joint list to consolidate the right-wing bloc and avoid wasted votes, citing their successful technical merger in 2022. However, Ben-Gvir has rejected any merger with RZP as “final and complete.” Smotrich has instead pursued separate list finalization for RZP—releasing its primary slate in July—and exploratory talks with other figures such as former Likud MK Moshe Feiglin, rather than integration with Likud. Likud has conducted its own primaries, selected a national list, and focused on internal reservations for Netanyahu allies, without announcements or negotiations signaling a combined slate with RZP. Historical patterns show RZP previously allied with Otzma Yehudit or other small parties, not directly with Likud, and current polling-driven pressures reinforce separate strategies to maximize bloc representation. These factors align with trader consensus that a Likud-RZP joint list is unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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