Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27 election show Likud typically projected at 19–24 Knesset seats, reflecting vote fragmentation on the right after Ofer Winter’s new Amcha Yisrael party launched on August 25 and drew support from Likud and Religious Zionist voters. Likud primaries on August 17 produced a contentious slate without lifting the party’s standing, while Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s Together have held or gained ground, keeping Netanyahu’s coalition bloc well short of 61 seats in most surveys. Traders price the 20–29 seat range highest because core Likud support remains stable yet faces ongoing pressure from threshold risks, small-party splits, and center-right competition. Final candidate lists due September 7–8 and any late security or coalition developments could still shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25-29 35%
20-24 30%
<20 19.1%
30-34 17%
$107,901 Vol.
$107,901 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
<20
19%
20-24
30%
25-29
35%
30-34
17%
35+
3%
25-29 35%
20-24 30%
<20 19.1%
30-34 17%
$107,901 Vol.
$107,901 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
<20
$35,163 Vol.
19%
20-24
$16,555 Vol.
30%
25-29
$25,840 Vol.
35%
30-34
$20,595 Vol.
17%
35+
$9,748 Vol.
3%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27 election show Likud typically projected at 19–24 Knesset seats, reflecting vote fragmentation on the right after Ofer Winter’s new Amcha Yisrael party launched on August 25 and drew support from Likud and Religious Zionist voters. Likud primaries on August 17 produced a contentious slate without lifting the party’s standing, while Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s Together have held or gained ground, keeping Netanyahu’s coalition bloc well short of 61 seats in most surveys. Traders price the 20–29 seat range highest because core Likud support remains stable yet faces ongoing pressure from threshold risks, small-party splits, and center-right competition. Final candidate lists due September 7–8 and any late security or coalition developments could still shift the outcome.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$107,901End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27 election show Likud typically projected at 19–24 Knesset seats, reflecting vote fragmentation on the right after Ofer Winter’s new Amcha Yisrael party launched on August 25 and drew support from Likud and Religious Zionist voters. Likud primaries on August 17 produced a contentious slate without lifting the party’s standing, while Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s Together have held or gained ground, keeping Netanyahu’s coalition bloc well short of 61 seats in most surveys. Traders price the 20–29 seat range highest because core Likud support remains stable yet faces ongoing pressure from threshold risks, small-party splits, and center-right competition. Final candidate lists due September 7–8 and any late security or coalition developments could still shift the outcome.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$107,901End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27 election show Likud typically projected at 19–24 Knesset seats, reflecting vote fragmentation on the right after Ofer Winter’s new Amcha Yisrael party launched on August 25 and drew support from Likud and Religious Zionist voters. Likud primaries on August 17 produced a contentious slate without lifting the party’s standing, while Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s Together have held or gained ground, keeping Netanyahu’s coalition bloc well short of 61 seats in most surveys. Traders price the 20–29 seat range highest because core Likud support remains stable yet faces ongoing pressure from threshold risks, small-party splits, and center-right competition. Final candidate lists due September 7–8 and any late security or coalition developments could still shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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